As Kenya approaches the 2027 general elections, former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka finds himself at a crucial juncture in his political career. Raila Odinga is nowhere near his side. Again.
On Tuesday 27TH August 2024, President William Ruto officially launched Raila’s candidacy for the African Union Commission Chairmanship. In a parallel event, Kalonzo Musyoka launched himself as the official leader of the opposition. A Position Raila Odinga has occupied for the longest time.
Raila, a mobilizer-exceptionale has been successive governments’ headache for his firm criticism, from the Dictatorial Moi to the son of Kenya’s founding father, Uhuru Kenyatta. His ability to assemble a million citizens to march against perceived poor governance has been told to generations across Africa.
Kalonzo Musyoka famously opined he would be ‘The stupidest person to ever follow Raila Odinga again…’ but Desmond Ford also remarked, ‘A wise man changes his mind sometimes, but a fool never. To change your mind is the best evidence you have one.’
In 2022, he went at it again. Joining Raila Odinga’s seemingly unstoppable reggae to State House. The octogenarian squad was stopped in their tracks by none other than William Ruto, a younger first-time Presidential candidate, and once a ranking leader of ODM.
Kalonzo Musyoka then joined Raila in a relentless campaign to unseat President Ruto by marching to the State House. Months later. Raila Odinga’s march to State House turned out to be his official unveiling as Kenya’s AUC Chairmanship candidate. Kalonzo is now feeling left in the cold.. yet again.
Raila made a not-so-shocking move to align himself with President Ruto’s government, by donating his soldiers to serve in the cabinet. Something Ruto promised never to allow.
This triggered a rift in Azimio, with a section of the opposition left in an awkward orphan situation. Martha Karua, Raila’s running mate has already divorced with the coalition, with DAP-K expected to follow suit. Leaving Kalonzo at a crossroads, yet again.
Historically aligned with the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader, the question looms: can Musyoka chart a successful course without Odinga’s support?
Musyoka must redefine his political identity and broaden his appeal beyond his traditional stronghold in Eastern Kenya to thrive independently.
For starters, the Wiper leader identifies with Gen Z.. a fatal wing of the youth vote that threatened President Ruto’s regime.
The fragmentation of political parties and the simmering tensions between Raila Odinga and President William Ruto can create space for Musyoka to position himself as an alternative leader.
However, he must navigate potential divisions within the opposition while forging alliances with emerging political figures to enhance his electoral viability.
Ultimately, Kalonzo Musyoka’s success in 2027 will depend on his ability to adapt, connect with voters, and craft a broad coalition with those he considered enemies.
