Somalia’s New Alliance With Egypt, Eritrea Could Anger Ethiopia

Written By Lisa Murimi

Leaders from Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia have made a bold commitment to uphold the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of their nations.

Presidents Isaias Afwerki (Eritrea), Abdel Fattah El-Sisi (Egypt), and Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud (Somalia) convened to address mutual concerns, notably foreign interference and the need for regional stability.

The leaders issued a joint communique emphasizing a commitment to international law as the cornerstone for cooperative efforts, particularly in strengthening Somalia’s state institutions.

Central to the discussions was the enhancement of the Federal National Army of Somalia, aimed at bolstering its capabilities to combat terrorism and secure its borders.

The summit also touched on the ongoing crisis in Sudan, discussing its implications for regional stability. The strategic importance of the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a crucial maritime route, was highlighted, with leaders deliberating on measures to protect this vital corridor.

Egypt and Eritrea received praise for their roles in fostering stability within Somalia. Egypt announced its willingness to deploy forces for the upcoming post-ATMIS peacekeeping mission in Somalia, set to commence in January 2024. Furthermore, a tripartite committee of foreign ministers was established to deepen strategic cooperation among the three nations.

However, the summit’s optimistic tone is overshadowed by rising tensions in the region, particularly following two new security agreements: one between Egypt and Somalia, and another between Ethiopia and Somaliland. The new agreements have led to heightened diplomatic disputes, with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed asserting that Ethiopia will not compromise on its sovereignty.

The recent agreement allowing Ethiopia access to the Red Sea via Somaliland has sparked outrage from the Somali central government, which views Somaliland as an integral part of its territory. This deal, which includes leasing a 20-kilometer stretch of coastline to Ethiopia for 50 years, has complicated an already intricate geopolitical landscape.

As Ethiopia continues to enhance its military presence in Somalia—reportedly bolstered by up to 10,000 troops—Egypt’s strategic alignment with Somalia marks a potential shift in regional alliances. If Egypt’s military deployment proceeds as planned, it could surpass Ethiopian troop numbers in the region, further complicating dynamics.