Twelve years after the Westgate Mall massacre that left 67 people dead and more than 150 wounded, Kenya is still grappling with the threat of al Shabaab.
While the capital has not suffered a large scale terror strike since 2019, the Somali militant group continues to wage a deadly campaign in the country’s northeastern and coastal regions.
The epicentre of the violence has shifted to Mandera, Garissa, Wajir and Lamu counties where porous borders and limited state presence have left security forces and civilians vulnerable.
In March 2025 six police officers were killed in Fafi, Garissa County after militants raided a police reservist camp. Just weeks earlier, an improvised explosive device struck a joint army and police patrol in El Wak, Mandera, killing a soldier. In 2024 a donkey cart packed with explosives detonated at a Mandera checkpoint, killing one police officer and injuring four others.
The scale of attacks surged in 2022 with 77 incidents recorded and 116 deaths, nearly half of them security officers. Although fatalities dropped to about 70 in 2023, the group’s ability to infiltrate border areas remains a pressing concern.
Kenya has been at the frontline of regional counter terrorism since deploying troops into Somalia in 2011 under Operation Linda Nchi, later integrated into the African Union Mission in Somalia known as AMISOM. But the phased withdrawal of African Union forces, now operating as ATMIS, is reshaping security dynamics. Somali forces are taking over security responsibilities as AU troops prepare to exit completely by the end of 2024. That has raised fears that al Shabaab could regain lost ground.
Kenya’s border security will come under renewed pressure. The drawdown of ATMIS leaves frontline states like Kenya exposed to spillover violence if Somali forces cannot fill the vacuum.
For residents of Mandera and Garissa the threat is not abstract. Teachers, police and medical staff live under constant fear of being targeted while transport routes face frequent ambushes albeit strong patrols.
As Kenya marks the Westgate anniversary the lingering question is whether the state can sustain long term security in regions where neglect and insecurity have become entrenched.
