South Africa’s Debt-to-GDP Ratio Expected to Stabilise, Says Treasury

South African Director General of the National Treasury Duncan Pieterse looks on ahead of the opening plenary session of the G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting at the Cape Town International Convention Centre, in Cape Town, South Africa February 24, 2025. REUTERS/Nic Bothma

South Africa’s debt burden, which has risen sharply over the past decade and a half, is expected to stabilise before beginning to decline, according to the National Treasury.

Treasury Director-General Duncan Pieterse said the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio, a key measure of a nation’s ability to repay its obligations, has climbed from 26% in 2009 to 77% in 2025 but should soon plateau as fiscal conditions improve.

Pieterse noted that the government’s strategy to curb debt hinges on expanding the primary budget surplus, where revenues exceed non-interest spending, to free up funds for essential public services such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure development.

“A stronger primary surplus will help create space for more productive investment while reducing the debt burden over time,” he said.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is set to deliver the country’s mid-year fiscal review on November 12, during which he will outline updated revenue and expenditure projections for the current and upcoming three fiscal years.

Analysts expect the review to provide a clearer picture of South Africa’s fiscal trajectory following months of political uncertainty and subdued economic growth.

The Treasury has said that stabilising public debt remains central to restoring confidence, improving credit ratings, and enabling sustainable investment to boost long-term growth.

Source: Reuters

Written By Rodney Mbua