Written by Henry Kimoli |
When Raila Amolo Odinga sneezes, Kenya catches a cold—literally.
He was sworn in as the people’s President in 2017. That oath has never been revoked.
Now, the people he presidents are demanding to know his whereabouts, whether sick or on holiday, because the people of Kenya love Raila
And not for nothing. He wrestled dictator President Daniel arap Moi to the ground in 1991 and forced the repeal of Section 2(a) of independent Kenya’s Constitution, delivering a multiparty system.
Undone, he led the country in rejecting Moi’s project Uhuru Kenyatta, ended KANU’s extension of power, and installed President Mwai Kibaki.
When Kibaki became rogue in 2005, Raila parted ways with him, defeated Kibaki in 2007, but his victory was stolen. He wrestled Kibaki to the ground with the precision of Amalinze the Cat of Things Fall Apart fame, forcing him to share half of the government in a deal that saved Kenya.
He has executed similar arrangements with Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto, and other leaders. Raila is one of the most legitimate sons of Kenya. His whereabouts cannot be treated as an ODM affair. He is larger than life to many Kenyans, and his absence must be discussed openly.
When former President Kenyatta disappeared from public view for two years, there was palpable concern. The stature of Raila, politically, is greater than any other figure in the country.
Since the former Premier evacuated himself from the public domain, all sorts of rumours—some absurd—have circulated like an Amazon forest fire.
The rumours are well-founded. Raila, aka Baba, aka Jakom, aka Tinga, is no ordinary mortal. He remains one of Africa’s most popular leaders, hate him or love him.
The concern is that Raila could be unwell. This is not a far-fetched story. At his age, he must be taking some medicine to manage his aging frame, and that’s in the public domain.
When he was Prime Minister, he suffered high blood pressure around his brain. He was treated and discharged. High blood pressure is a condition that requires permanent management and procedures to maintain it at a required state.
So why the concern? Baba is viewed as Kenya’s political barometer. He gets away with the equivalent of murder—politically speaking.
In 2023, between January and March, Baba organized deadly demonstrations that nearly paralyzed the UDA government. He described UDA, President William Ruto, and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua as irredeemably corrupt. He opposed the housing project, SHA, and SHIF, describing them as conduits for stealing public money.
Then Gen Z struck, threatening to sweep dynasties out of power. Raila, retired President Kenyatta, and William Ruto closed ranks to stop the tide—and it worked.
When Gachagua was terrorizing the government during the Gen Z protests, Raila’s depth came in handy. The men in black, who have long provided free security for Raila, neutralized Mungiki.
The biggest fear in Kenya today is the vacuum Raila will leave should he retire or the unthinkable happen. He provides a shield against dictatorship and has tamed all four presidents other than Jomo Kenyatta.
His negotiating skills are legend. As Kenya’s longest-serving political detainee, Baba left the Nyayo torture chambers unscathed—other than psychological trauma. Unlike Kenneth Matiba, Charles Rubia, and many others, Raila did a handshake with his tormentors.
Nyanza residents believe Raila is supernatural. They say the King of the Lake Region, Western, Lower Eastern, and Coast is capable of executing a handshake with death itself.
At 82, he remains a formidable force. A leader who can speak positively about Adan deals in Kenya and get away with it cannot be wished away.
To buttress how powerful he is, visit his Capitol Hill offices—CSs, PSs, and parastatal bosses queue for an audience. Raila is today the most powerful person after President William Ruto.
For all intents and purposes, he is a co-president, much like during the Uhuru regime between 2018 and 2022. He is a key cog in President Ruto’s 2027 re-election, yet looks like he can’t sustain a campaign. And he can’t endorse Dr. Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka—they have nothing in common.
Back home in ODM, succession battles have begun in earnest. It’s clear that ODM will implode the day Raila exits the stage. That’s why Lawyer Babu Owino’s visibility is increasing by the day.
Siaya Senator James Orengo could have been a future ODM boss, but he appears increasingly frail. Senator Edwin Sifuna may follow Kijana Wamalwa’s path and form another political party—or buy one of the Luhya outfits.
