A special election in a reliably red Tennessee congressional district has become an unlikely battleground, signaling potential upheaval for the Republican Party as it grapples with its identity in the era of a politically vulnerable Donald Trump.
Despite Donald Trump winning the district by 22 points in the last presidential election, both parties are pouring resources into the race. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair held a rally, and former Vice-President Kamala Harris recently visited, declaring, “I know the power is in the South.” Their optimism stems from a potent combination of Democratic enthusiasm and Republican complacency.
“Sources roundly agree that Nashville Democrats are ravenous at the prospect of an upset, while many Republican voters are unaware an election is even taking place,” notes Matthew Klein of the Cook Political Report.
The Affordability Election
On the ground, the campaign is dominated by one issue: the cost of living. Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn’s platform—“Feed kids, fix roads, fund hospitals”—is a direct appeal to economic frustrations. She is building, as she told the BBC, “a coalition of the disenchanted, a coalition of the pissed off.”
In a significant shift, her Republican opponent, Matt Van Epps, is largely mirroring this focus. An Army pilot who won his primary with a last-minute Trump endorsement, Van Epps now centers his general election message not on cultural wars, but on bringing down inflation and the cost of living. This pivot underscores a new reality—the economy has become a liability for Republicans, even on traditionally friendly turf.
A Party at a Crossroads
The Tennessee race highlights a central weakness for the GOP: Trump’s power to sway primaries does not always translate to winning general elections without his name on the ballot. The party has suffered a string of defeats in the 2018 and 2022 midterms and earlier this month, pointing to a fraying coalition.
This tension is playing out in Washington, where conservative firebrands have grown increasingly critical of Trump’s policies on the economy and foreign affairs. The recent push to release the Epstein files, despite White House opposition, is one example of the fault lines emerging.
For voters, the struggle is palpable. At a local Republican dinner, supporters expressed a pragmatic, if conflicted, loyalty. “I think he’s just a flat-out arrogant prick,” said one voter of Trump. “But for this country, that’s what it needs.”
The outcome in Tennessee alone won’t shift control of Congress, but a Democratic upset would be seismic. It would confirm that the political landscape is shifting, even in the heart of Trump country, and force Republicans to confront a future where their standard-bearer is a fading, and increasingly expensive, asset.
As Vanderbilt University professor John Geer puts it, “One of the things that has been common over elections over the last decade is the people have wanted change every time. And so if you want change right now, you’d vote for the Democrat.”
By James Kisoo
