As of July 31, 2025, global crude oil prices continued their upward trajectory, with Brent crude settling at $71.94 per barrel, marking a notable 7.2 percent rise since the start of July from $67.12 per barrel on July 1.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, mirrored the gain, trading slightly below Brent reflecting a typical premium gap of around $1.60 to $2 per barrel.
This rebound follows turbulent market dynamics driven by renewed geopolitical tensions in theMiddle East, especially heightened fears surrounding potential disruptions to shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz (Wikipedia).
While analysts from the EIA and Goldman Sachs forecast average Brent prices of $69–$70 perbarrel for 2025, they acknowledge that elevated risk premium could keep prices elevated in the near term.
The supply picture remains mixed. The OPEC+ alliance implemented production hikes targeting an increase of approximately 550,000 barrels per day for August, following earlier increments adding to global output and exacerbating concerns over future oversupply.
Yet weekly U.S. crude inventory data showed continued stock builds, raising short-term bearish sentiment among traders.
Despite the looming risk of oversupply, demand continues to show resilience. Seasonal summerdemand in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted refinery throughput by over 3.7 million barrels per day since May.
At the same time, sturdy demand growth forecast at roughly 0.8 million barrels per day in 2025 supports a balanced backdrop, tempering the effects of rising supply.
Market sentiment remains cautious. Analysts warn of macroeconomic headwinds, especially the potential resurgence of U.S.–China trade tensions, which could dampen oil consumption and reverse the price rally.
Goldman Sachs has emphasized that while Brent may hover in the upper $60s, downside risks are present if demand falters.
In summary, on July 31, 2025, Brent crude oil stands at $71.94 per barrel, WTI near $70, reflecting a market grappling with rising supply and persistent geopolitical hazards. Price action is underpinned by summer demand and tight inventory dynamics, but heightened production from OPEC+ and global economic uncertainty continue to pose risks to the outlook.
Written By Ian Maleve
