China’s export growth likely decelerated in July as global demand showed signs of softening and exporters rushed to front-load shipments before new US tariffs take effect.
A Reuters poll of economists forecasts that overseas shipments from the world’s second-largest economy grew at a slower pace last month, reflecting growing caution among manufacturers facing mounting trade tensions.
Preliminary projections suggest export growth eased to around 3.2 percent year-on-year in July, down from 5.6 percent in June. Analysts attribute the expected moderation to weakening orders from Western markets, lingering logistical disruptions, and increasing uncertainty over geopolitical trade policies.
The looming threat of further tariffs from Washington, particularly on Chinese electric vehicles, solar equipment, and battery technologies, has prompted some exporters to accelerate deliveries to avoid higher duties.
Import growth is also anticipated to have remained sluggish, with the poll indicating a marginal uptick of about 0.8 percent. China’s domestic demand remains under pressure despite government measures aimed at stimulating consumption and investment.
Weakness in property markets and cautious household spending continue to weigh on import volumes, particularly of commodities and consumer goods.
The potential tariff escalation by the US, set to be reviewed in mid-August, is shaping trade decisions across China’s manufacturing hubs. Exporters in high-risk sectors are already diversifying shipping routes, adjusting supply chains and exploring alternative markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
However, economists warn that such adjustments may not fully offset the impact if punitive tariffs are expanded further.
China’s trade data for July is scheduled for release later this week and will be closely monitored by global markets. The figures are expected to shed light on the resilience of the country’s export engine amid rising headwinds.
A weaker showing may also increase pressure on Beijing to roll out additional stimulus measures to safeguard growth.
The broader concern is that escalating tariff threats could derail China’s trade-led recovery trajectory. As the US election cycle intensifies, trade rhetoric has once again taken center stage, raising the risk of further friction between the two economic giants.
Beijing’s response, and the outcome of tariff reviews, will play a crucial role in shaping export momentum in the months ahead.
Written By Ian Maleve
