China has launched construction on what it claims will be the world’s largest hydropower project, a $170 billion engineering feat that has stirred anxiety among neighbouring countries, particularly India and Bangladesh, over potential impacts on water flow, agriculture, and regional stability.
Unveiled over the weekend by Chinese Premier Li Qiang, the new dam complex along the Yarlung Zangbo River in Tibet will feature five dams over a 50-kilometre stretch where the river drops 2,000 meters, a site ideal for massive energy generation. Once operational in the early to mid-2030s, the facility is expected to generate more electricity annually than the entire United Kingdom consumes.
Beijing touts the project as a boost for clean energy production, job creation, and a stimulus injection into China’s slowing economy. But with few technical details disclosed, neighbours downstream fear far-reaching consequences.
The Yarlung Zangbo flows into India as the Siang and later becomes the Brahmaputra, a critical water source for millions across India and Bangladesh. Concerns are mounting in India, especially in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, where officials fear the dam could severely reduce river flow, hamper irrigation, and increase flood risk.
“The dam could dry out up to 80% of the Brahmaputra in Arunachal Pradesh while potentially inundating lower regions,” warned the state’s chief minister earlier this year.
Experts also highlight that the dam could trap sediment vital for downstream agriculture. “Sediment carries nutrients essential to floodplain farming,” said Columbia University professor Michael Steckler.
China’s foreign ministry responded to the backlash, asserting that the project falls under its sovereign jurisdiction. “China has conducted necessary communication with downstream countries regarding hydrological data, flood control, and disaster mitigation,” the ministry said Tuesday.
However, India’s ministries of foreign affairs and water resources have remained silent, fueling speculation about diplomatic tensions. Historical mistrust lingers, as the two nations fought a border war in the region in 1962. Analysts such as Sayanangshu Modak of the University of Arizona warn the dam could be viewed as a potential geopolitical tool in future conflicts.
Still, Modak cautions against alarmism. Most of the Brahmaputra’s flow comes from monsoon rains south of the Himalayas, not from China. He also notes that the project is designed as a “run-of-the-river” system, which does not involve large-scale diversion or long-term storage of water.
India has proposed its own massive hydropower projects on the Siang River, partly to establish usage rights and counter any potential Chinese moves to divert water.
Beyond geopolitical implications, the dam’s location in an earthquake-prone, high-altitude region also raises engineering and safety concerns. Tibet has recently experienced major seismic activity, and nearby smaller hydropower projects have faced seasonal shutdowns due to harsh winters and landslide risks.
Water disputes involving transboundary rivers are not new in Asia. India and Pakistan have long been at odds over the Indus Waters Treaty, while Egypt and Ethiopia have sparred over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile.
As China races ahead with its mega-project, regional cooperation and transparency will be critical to averting future water crises and ensuring shared resources remain a source of life, not conflict.
Written By Rodney Mbua
