As the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics await the opening of the conclave this Wednesday, speculation is mounting over whether the next pope might hail from outside Europe—perhaps even from Africa.
While there is no official rule guiding how cardinals vote during a papal conclave, the geographic makeup of the College of Cardinals can offer insight into the Church’s current priorities and global direction.
This year’s conclave is the most geographically diverse in Catholic history, with 135 cardinals from 71 countries originally eligible to vote. However, two have informed the Vatican they will not attend for health reasons, reducing the number of voting cardinals to 133.
The Numbers Behind the Conclave
A two-thirds majority is required to elect the next pope. With 133 electors, that means a successful candidate will need at least 89 votes.
Here’s how the cardinal electors breakdown by region (after adjusting for the two absentees):
- Africa: 17
- Europe: 52
- Asia (including the Middle East): 23
- South America: 17
- North America: 16 (10 from the United States, 4 from Canada, and 2 from Mexico)
- Central America: 4
- Oceania: 4 (1 each from Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, and Tonga)
While European cardinals still constitute the largest bloc, their dominance has decreased considerably over the last few decades. Africa, Asia, and Latin America now collectively account for over 40% of the voting body—a sign of the Church’s shifting demographics.
The African Possibility
Africa is home to some of the most vibrant and fastest-growing Catholic communities. With 17 cardinal electors expected to vote (down from 18 due to the absence of a Kenyan cardinal), the continent has a stronger voice than ever before in the conclave.
In a historic shift, two African prelates—Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana and Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungo of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)—have emerged as frontrunners to wear the papal white
Though Africa has produced popes in the Church’s earliest centuries, none have emerged from the continent in the modern era. However, the demographic rise of African Catholicism and the growing influence of African cardinals make the possibility increasingly realistic.
The Future of the Church
The geographic shift in the College of Cardinals reflects the evolving face of global Catholicism. With the faith growing most rapidly in the Global South—particularly in Africa and Asia—many see the next conclave as a pivotal moment to align leadership with the Church’s demographic center.
Whether or not an African cardinal is chosen this time, the question no longer seems premature: Could Africa produce the next pope?
Written by Kelly Were
