Oil prices ticked higher on July 24 as shippers digested upbeat trade developments and a surprising decline in U.S. crude inventories, buoying market sentiment.
Brent crude futures rose by about 30 cents to settle at $68.72 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 25 cents to reach $65.47 per barrel.
The rally was spurred by two positive catalysts. First, fresh progress in U.S. trade talks particularly with Japan and the European Union helped alleviate concerns over slowing global growth.
A tentative deal with Japan, featuring lower auto tariffs and investment provisions, along with advances in the U.S.–EU dialogue, boosted confidence in demand prospects.
Second, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released this week showed crude stockpiles falling by 3.2 million barrels well below analysts’ expectations of a 1.6 million‑barrel draw underscoring resilient demand amid a summer travel peak.
Markets continue to weigh both supportive and restrictive forces. Geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia‑Ukraine and ongoing uncertainties in U.S.–China negotiations have restrained sharper price advances. Moreover, Reuters today reported strengthening downward pressure from escalating OPEC+ supply in recent.
Oil major TotalEnergies reinforced this cautious tone with its own update: second-quarter net income dropped 23 percent to $3.6 billion its weakest result in four years largely due to softer energy prices, including a 20 percent year‑on‑year decline in Brent, and subdued refining margins.The company warned of a looming oversupply, citing increased OPEC+ production and weakening global economic growth.
Analysts now suggest that oil remains range‑bound between $60 and $70 per barrel in the near term. Goldman Sachs recently revised its second‑half Brent forecast to around $66 per barrel up $5 from earlier estimates but flagged medium‑term risks from inventory accumulation and slowing demand 
July’s price trajectory also reflects mixed signals from inventory and supply trends: while U.S. crude draws signal stronger demand, elevated production from the U.S. shale patch and Russia is keeping supply pressure high.
Additionally, geopolitical risk premiums tied to possible disruptions in the Red Sea or the Gulf remain priced in, though no immediate supply issues have materialized.
Looking ahead, traders will monitor several critical variables: further U.S. inventory reports, progress in trade negotiations, OPEC+ production decisions, and the development of the Atlantic hurricane season all of which could tilt the market sentiment either way.
In summary, as of July 24, crude oil prices are modestly elevated, supported by stronger trade sentiment and an unexpected inventory drop. However, persistent oversupply, geopolitical uncertainties, and economic headwinds suggest limited upside, with analysts forecasting a relatively stable, range‑bound environment in the months ahead.
Written By Ian Maleve
