As of July 23, 2025, global crude oil prices continue to stabilize around $69 per barrel for Brent and $65.60 for U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), reflecting a market balancing act between supply expansion, geopolitical flare-ups, and shifting demand signals.
Brent futures rose modestly by 33 cents to $68.92 per barrel, while WTI increased by the same margin to settle at $65.64, driven by a new U.S.–Japan trade deal and a surprise drawdown in U.S. crude inventories of approximately 1.6 million barrels.
Despite trending within a narrow band, analysts observe that crude remains vulnerable to turning points amid mixed global indicators.
On a broader quarterly basis, crude has been caught in a seesaw of influences. OPEC+ has unwound significant voluntary supply cuts about 2.2 million barrels per day abolishing 80% of reduced output and prompting an oversupplied market.
The International Energy Agency confirmed this trend, projecting global supply to outpace demand growth by 2.1 million bpd this year, creating stocks bulges in Q2. However, seasonal travel demand and tight short-term spreads are preventing deeper price erosion.
Geopolitical developments continue to cast shadows. The June flare-up in the Israel‑Iran conflict triggered a brief Brent spike above $74, although prices quickly reverted once a ceasefire was declared.
Analysts remain wary of further volatility, particularly threats to the Strait of Hormuz a maritime chokepoint that handles nearly 20% of global oil supply.
In North America, U.S. crude futures are under bearish pressure, trading in a tight range and prompting advisory calls for a “sell on rise” strategy due to persistent excess supply.
Meanwhile, Canadian production disruptions exacerbated by wildfires in Alberta are adding a marginal premium to certain grades, even as global pipeline bottlenecks affect regional pricing.
Market forecasts remain divided. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) maintains its forecast of ~ $69/bbl Brent for 2025 and projects a drop to $58/bbl in 2026 due to excess supply.
OPEC+ and IEA demand projections are tempered, forecasting growth between 0.7 and 1.3 million bpd—the slowest rise since 2009.Meanwhile, rising non-OPEC+ output, including record U.S. shale production, continues to cap any sustained price rally.
Regional dynamics are also key. Rising Saudi exports, combined with renewed trade tensions and oil tariff dynamics, introduce further uncertainty.
Although seasonal demand is cushioning a dip, the longer-term trend points to oversupply risks unless output is reined in or demand accelerates meaningfully.
In summary, crude oil markets on July 23, 2025, remain in a state of cautious equilibrium: Brent near $69/bbl, WTI about $65.60. Supply-side surfeit dominates, regional disruptions provide occasional support, and demand outlooks remain subdued.
The next major test likely lies in extended logistics disruptions, further geopolitical surprises, or a sudden shift in demand from major economies like China or India.
Written By Ian Maleve
