Global crude oil prices slipped on August 4, 2025, as a newly approved production increase by OPEC+ sparked concerns over an emerging supply surplus.
Brent crude futures fell to roughly $68.12 a barrel a drop of about 2.2 percent from prior levels while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell nearly 2.6 percent to around $65.61, both hitting their lowest levels since late July.
The slide followed OPEC+ confirmation of a substantial output rise totaling approximately 547,000 barrels per day in September, part of a broader effort to unwind earlier voluntary production cuts.
Although anticipated to remain sizeable even after reductions from some overproducing members, the move triggered worries that market supply will outstrip demand, exerting downward pressure on prices.
Despite the output increase, geopolitical risks continue to support oil prices. Sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil exports, combined with escalating tensions in the Middle East, have helped cushion prices from sharper declines.
Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its outlook, forecasting Brent crude at approximately $64 per barrel by Q4 2025 and around $56 in 2026, while cautioning that weakening global demand especially from a slowing U.S. economy or renewed tariff disruptions could erode those levels.
The pricing setback comes after a volatile week in which oil lost nearly $2 per barrel as markets grappled with shifting supply-demand outlooks and concerns over investor sentiment amid global economic headwinds.
Amplifying the risk perspective, analysts warn of a mounting supply glut driven by persistent OPEC+ increases and subdued industrial activity across major consuming regions.
Focused technical analysts noted that Brent failed to hold above key support near $69, signaling a bearish bias. Continued trading below the 50‑day moving average has further reinforced the potential for additional downside, with the next psychological support level around $65 per barrel.
Looking ahead, market watchers are eyeing upcoming indicators such as U.S. inventory reports, economic data from OECD countries, and OPEC+ policy guidance.
Key drivers will include whether demand remains resilient amid trade uncertainties and how quickly inventory levels rebound in response to increased supply.
For now, the oil complex appears locked in a tug-of-war: ample supply growth on one side and geopolitical uncertainty and inflation risks on the other. The net result is a cooling price environment, with a cautious tone dominating investor sentiment in early August.
Written By Ian Maleve
