Crude oil prices held relatively steady after a modest decline on August 5, with Brent crude trading at $68.65 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) retreating to $66.17.
Both benchmarks marked their fourth consecutive dip as markets weighed growing concerns over oversupply in the wake of OPEC+’s decision to boost production for September.
The output increase, totaling 547,000 barrels per day, represents a reversal of the group’s most recent cuts and intensified pressure on prices. However, political dynamics have provided a subtle buffer, helping to temper sharper losses.
OPEC+’s renewed supply expansion reflects a deliberate drive to reclaim market share. Analysts note that while the ramp-up adds to existing inventories, the actual quantity likely reaching the market may be less than nominally announced.
At the same time, ongoing uncertainty around trade disruptions and sanctions particularly U.S. pressure on India over its Russian oil purchases has helped sustain support for crude.
On the demand side, fears are mounting over a potential slowdown, underscored by warning signals from major economies. The U.S. faces elevated recession risks amid cooling indicators, while China emphasizes structural economic rebalancing without further stimulus.
These developments contribute to a cautious outlook for oil consumption, even as geopolitical instability persists.
Goldman Sachs maintained a tempered long-term view, projecting Brent crude at an average of $64 per barrel in Q4 2025 and slipping further to $56 in 2026.
The bank cited downside risks tied to weak demand and rising tariffs while noting that potential reductions in Russian and Iranian output could act as upside catalysts.
Despite these pressures, oil markets continue to navigate between competing forces. The production increase led to a weekly low in pricing fueling ranges in the upper $60s per barrel but analysts characterise the market as balanced, highlighting speculative and technical resilience amid volatility.
Attention now shifts to upcoming data releases and policy developments that could alter the supply-demand balance. Forecasts for global economic performance, central bank decisions, and output signals from major producers will likely dictate near-term direction.
Absent fresh disruptions, however, oil prices appear poised to trade within a narrow corridor, as the market adapts to evolving fundamentals.
In summary, oil markets on August 5 reflected careful equilibrium. OPEC+ supply increases introduced bearish pressure, but geopolitical uncertainty and supply-side sequencing provided countervailing support leaving prices firming near $68 per barrel amid a watchful global economic backdrop.
Written By Ian Maleve
