International agencies, including the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC), have issued a stark warning regarding the Horn of Africa’s upcoming October-December rainfall season.
Predictions indicate below-average rainfall, potentially setting the stage for severe drought conditions in several countries across the region.
The alert, released on Friday, highlights that climate models are forecasting a transition to La Niña conditions in the latter half of 2024, which is expected to significantly affect weather patterns.
The areas anticipated to be hardest hit include central and southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, and the arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya.
Additionally, neighbouring countries—Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania—are also likely to face adverse effects, as their second rainfall season occurs during the same October to December period.
The critical agencies warned that insufficient rainfall could lead to devastating consequences, including crop failures, deteriorating conditions for pastoral communities, water shortages, unusual livestock movements, and increased disease outbreaks. Most alarmingly, these factors could heighten food insecurity and malnutrition rates in an already vulnerable population.
The Horn of Africa has a history of severe drought events, with significant occurrences noted in 2010-2011, 2016-2017, and 2020-2023.
These droughts have been exacerbated by higher-than-average temperatures, leading to pasture and water shortages, livestock deaths, failed harvests, and increased food prices.
Currently, an estimated 20.4 million people across Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia are experiencing high levels of food insecurity, requiring urgent assistance.
Acute malnutrition among children remains a pressing concern, with projections indicating that over 6.2 million children under five in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia will suffer from acute malnutrition in 2024. Out of this vulnerable group, an alarming 1.7 million are expected to face severe acute malnutrition.
In response to these alarming forecasts, the agencies emphasize the need for humanitarian partners to collaborate with local and national governments in crafting contingency plans and preparedness actions. The aim is to mitigate the impacts of potential below-average rainfall, promoting resilience in communities already struggling with the repercussions of climate change.
As the region braces for the possible repercussions of another dry season, the call for proactive measures has never been more critical in safeguarding lives and livelihoods in the Horn of Africa.
