By Andrew Kariuki

The uneasying political marriage between the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) is no longer holding together quietly, it is beginning to unravel in full public view.

What started as a strategic understanding is now showing signs of strain from every direction. ODM’s threat to withdraw from the arrangement, as conveyed by Suna East MP Junet Mohamed, captures the growing frustration within the party. At the heart of the dispute are claims that State machinery is being used to pressure ODM MPs, particularly from the Coast and Western regions, to defect to UDA.

That pressure, ODM insiders say, is not limited to elected leaders. Party-affiliated officials serving in government, including Cabinet Secretaries, are allegedly being pushed to distance themselves from ODM, raising serious concerns about political interference and control.

Taken together, these developments point to a deepening trust deficit. ODM insists it entered the arrangement in good faith after the 2024 crisis to stabilise the country. But what it now sees is a slow but deliberate effort to sideline and hollow it out from within. Allegations that key agreements, such as inclusivity in state appointments and the formation of a technical committee to guide cooperation, have not been honoured have only worsened the situation.

The fallout is now spilling into open political confrontation. ODM has drawn a line in the sand, warning UDA against fielding candidates in its traditional strongholds, effectively declaring “ODM zones.” UDA, however, is unmoved, maintaining it will field candidates nationwide ahead of the 2027 elections. What was once cooperation is fast turning into a turf war, with both sides digging in.

At the same time, a new and more delicate layer of tension is emerging, succession politics. Questions are beginning to surface around the future of Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, with some ODM figures seen to be eyeing top positions within government, including the deputy presidency itself. This has quietly introduced competition at the highest levels, further straining an already fragile arrangement.

On the ground, the political chessboard is already shifting. In regions like Western Kenya, some ODM leaders are reportedly gravitating toward UDA, signalling early realignments ahead of 2027. For ODM, this reinforces fears that UDA is not just competing, but actively working to absorb its base from within, without needing or asking for its formal backing.

Internally, ODM is also grappling with its own divisions. Leaders such as Edwin Sifuna have continuously taken a firm stance against the arrangement, reflecting a broader unease within the party over its current direction.

With pressure mounting both externally and internally, ODM has now moved to reassess its position, including the possibility of exiting the partnership altogether. If that decision is made, it will not just mark the end of a political arrangement, it will trigger a wider realignment across the country.

In the end, what is unfolding was perhaps inevitable. The ODM–UDA relationship was built on necessity, personal ambitions and demands, and opportune timing, not shared ideology. Now, weighed down by mistrust, competing ambitions, zoning disputes and succession battles, it is struggling to hold.

What remains is a partnership in name—but increasingly, a growing rivalry in motion.