EU Science Advisers Warn Against Softening 2040 Climate Target

The European Union’s top climate advisers have cautioned against diluting the bloc’s ambitious 2040 climate targets, warning that a shift to include international carbon credits or relax targets for domestic industries could undermine both environmental progress and economic resilience.

The European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC) released a detailed analysis on Monday, urging EU policymakers to stay the course with a 90–95% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by 2040 — a target the European Commission is set to formally propose in July.

The warning comes as Brussels grapples with growing political resistance, especially from industrial sectors and some member states concerned about costs, competitiveness, and upcoming elections.

The Commission is reportedly considering a lower domestic target or allowing international carbon credits — such as reforestation projects in the Global South — to help close the gap.

But ESABCC pushed back firmly, stating:

“Using international carbon credits to meet this target, even partially, could undermine domestic value creation by diverting resources from the necessary transformation of the EU’s economy.”

Critics of international credits argue they offer less environmental integrity, recalling the 2013 collapse in EU carbon prices after a flood of low-quality foreign offsets.

The science advisers instead called for a nearly emissions-free power sector by 2040, electrification of heavy industry, and deep investment in clean energy infrastructure — all seen as essential to hitting the 2040 goal and aligning with the Paris Agreement.

Despite rising geopolitical tensions and economic headwinds, the ESABCC maintains that a strong domestic climate policy offers health, energy security, and industrial innovation dividends for the EU.