French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to recognise a Palestinian state, making France the first Western permanent member of the United Nations Security Council to do so, has triggered diplomatic ripples across the Middle East, Europe, and Washington. But sources say the move was the culmination of months of behind-the-scenes negotiations, rising domestic pressure, and growing frustration with the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.
Gaza Visit Sparked Resolve
Macron’s determination reportedly crystallised during his April visit to Al-Arish, a border town near Gaza in Egypt, where he witnessed the region’s worsening humanitarian conditions. Upon returning to France, Macron signalled his intent to act decisively and move toward recognising Palestinian statehood.
Working closely with Saudi Arabia, Macron crafted a proposal to jointly recognise the Palestinian state with fellow G7 members, the United Kingdom and Canada, and simultaneously push Arab nations toward a more conciliatory posture on Israel, all within the framework of a proposed United Nations conference. However, the plan foundered after London and Ottawa refused to support the initiative, wary of U.S. opposition, according to three diplomats familiar with the discussions.
“It became increasingly apparent that we could not wait to get partners on board,” said a French diplomat. “We had to move.”
Domestic Pressure and Political Calculations
Macron also faced intense domestic pressure as graphic images and reports from Gaza drew condemnation across France’s politically and religiously diverse society. France is home to both Europe’s largest Muslim and Jewish communities, making any policy move in the Middle East highly sensitive.
Despite the risks, Macron decided that France could no longer delay a formal recognition. He plans to announce it at a high-level summit in September during the United Nations General Assembly, following a ministerial-level conference on Monday and Tuesday, co-hosted with Saudi Arabia.
Originally planned for June, the conference was postponed due to escalating U.S. resistance and Israeli airstrikes on Iran. It has since been rescheduled and reshaped, with a renewed focus on reviving the two-state solution.
Strong Pushback from Israel and the U.S.
Israel and its key ally, the United States, have condemned Macron’s move, describing it as a “reward” for Hamas, the Palestinian militant group whose October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel sparked the current war.
Macron reportedly consulted extensively with both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump before making his decision public. Trump, speaking on Friday, downplayed the decision, saying it “didn’t carry any weight” but called Macron “a good guy.”
Despite these efforts, Israel ramped up diplomatic pressure in an attempt to dissuade France. Sources close to the matter revealed that Israel threatened to scale back intelligence-sharing, undermine France’s regional initiatives, and even hinted at annexing parts of the West Bank in response.
Still, French officials remained undeterred.
“Netanyahu will do what he wants in the West Bank regardless,” a senior French official said. “If there is a moment in history to recognise a Palestinian state, even symbolically, it is now.”
Political Leverage or Symbolism?
Analysts are divided on the impact of France’s recognition. Some suggest Macron is using it as a diplomatic lever to extract reforms from Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and secure broader Arab support for post-war stabilization efforts.
“Macron is acting as a catalyst,” said Rym Momtaz, editor-in-chief of Strategic Europe, a blog by Carnegie Europe. “He’s pushing for Palestinian reforms, Arab stabilization forces, and disarming Hamas.”
Others see the recognition as largely symbolic unless followed by substantive changes on the ground.
“Recognition by a European heavyweight like France reflects deepening frustration with Israel’s hardline policies,” said Amjad Iraqi, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group. “But what’s the point of recognising a state while doing little to prevent it from being reduced to rubble?”
Adding urgency to the situation, Israel’s parliament voted Wednesday in favour of a non-binding resolution urging the government to apply Israeli law to the occupied West Bank, widely viewed as a step toward de facto annexation.
As France moves forward with its recognition and seeks to rally other nations, the September summit in New York is shaping up to be a crucial test for Macron’s diplomatic gamble, and for the viability of the long-stalled two-state solution.
Written By Rodney Mbua
