Hondurans vote on Sunday in general elections overshadowed by allegations of fraud, rising political tensions, and an unusually direct intervention from the United States, adding uncertainty to an already polarized contest.
Three candidates are leading a race with no clear favorite: Rixi Moncada, the left-wing nominee backed by outgoing President Xiomara Castro; Salvador Nasralla, the centrist-liberal former vice president; and Nasry “Tito” Asfura, the right-wing National Party candidate who has received firm public support from U.S. President Donald Trump.
Nasry Asfura, Rixi Moncada and Salvador Nasralla (Reuters/Getty Images)
“This is an election marked by a deep political and economic divide,” political scientist Héctor Soto Caballero told CNN. “It reflects two completely different visions for the future of the country.”
If Castro completes her term on January 27, she will become the first left-wing leader in Honduras to do so, a historic milestone after her husband Manuel Zelaya was ousted in a 2009 coup.
Moncada has promised to continue Castro’s social-focused agenda, while the opposition urges a shift toward market-driven policies and closer alignment with Washington.
Both the ruling LIBRE party and opposition groups have raised fears of electoral fraud before ballots are even cast, a dynamic that critics warn risks eroding trust in the vote.
The National Electoral Council (CNE), already under intense scrutiny, accused the Honduran Armed Forces of overreach after military chief Roosevelt Hernández requested presidential ballot records, an act not permitted by law.
CNE president Ana Paola Hall called the request “interference,” while analysts warned it could mirror authoritarian tactics seen in Nicaragua and Venezuela.
International organizations, including Human Rights Watch, the OAS and the EU, have expressed concern that political infighting, prosecutorial pressure and military involvement are undermining the credibility of the election.
The United States, Honduras’ largest trading partner, has played an unusually visible role in the campaign. Trump endorsed Asfura this week, praising him as an ally against “narco-communists” and promising closer cooperation if he wins.
He also pledged to pardon former president Juan Orlando Hernández, convicted in the U.S. on drug-trafficking charges, should the National Party return to power.
Analysts say opposition candidates are leaning into U.S. alignment, while the government has maintained a cautious, transactional approach with Washington.
Honduras remains deeply affected by U.S. migration policy, and remittances, accounting for roughly 25% of GDP, give the U.S. significant leverage.
Some observers warn that Washington’s influence could grow if the opposition wins, while a LIBRE victory may strain relations, especially after Secretary of State Marco Rubio excluded Honduras from his recent regional tour.
Venezuela is another flashpoint. Castro’s ties to Nicolás Maduro have been politically sensitive, and while Moncada has largely avoided the topic, opposition candidates vow to cut ties with Caracas.
Meanwhile, Honduras’ switch from Taiwan to China in 2023 has reshaped regional alignments but delivered little progress toward trade agreements.
Analysts warn that Sunday’s vote could determine whether Tegucigalpa drifts further toward Beijing or pivots back toward the U.S.
A report by the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute says the election could “either deepen Beijing’s foothold or recalibrate toward US-aligned positions.”
With an independent electoral body under strain, one of the world’s highest migration rates, and powerful foreign actors watching closely, Honduras enters Sunday’s elections facing one of its most volatile political moments in years.
As Soto put it, the vote is not only about choosing a president, it’s about determining “the very direction of the Honduran system” at a time when both domestic and international pressures are reaching a boiling point.
Source: CNN
Written By Rodney Mbua
