Iraqis headed to the polls on Tuesday for a parliamentary election that many voters say is unlikely to bring significant reform, as Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani seeks a second term in power.
The vote comes amid mounting frustration with corruption, poor governance, and an entrenched political class accused of dividing up the country’s vast oil wealth for personal gain.
Sudani’s coalition is projected to win the largest number of seats but fall short of an outright majority, likely triggering months of post-election bargaining among Shi’ite, Sunni, and Kurdish factions to form a new government and appoint a prime minister.
Turnout is expected to fall below the record low of 41% seen in 2021, reflecting widespread public disillusionment and a boycott by powerful populist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, whose movement commands hundreds of thousands of loyal supporters.
Analysts say many Iraqis no longer believe elections can deliver change in a system long dominated by parties backed by armed groups.
“This election will not depend on popularity. It will depend on spending money,” former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said in a recent television interview, highlighting the influence of patronage and political funding.
Despite a surge of young candidates seeking to challenge the status quo, observers say they face an uphill battle against the established party networks that have controlled Iraqi politics since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.
“For Iraq’s 21 million registered voters, Tuesday’s ballot may do little more than endorse a familiar political order,” said Baghdad-based analyst Ahmed Younis. “The results are not expected to make dramatic changes in the Iraqi political map.”
The election comes at a sensitive moment. The next government will need to navigate Iraq’s delicate balancing act between U.S. and Iranian influence, manage dozens of Tehran-aligned militias operating outside full state control, and respond to growing Western pressure to rein them in.
Domestically, leaders will also face demands to curb corruption, improve essential services, and address unemployment to prevent a repeat of the mass anti-government protests that rocked the country in 2019 and 2020.
Under Iraq’s power-sharing system, the prime minister is traditionally a Shi’ite, the speaker of parliament a Sunni, and the president a Kurd, an arrangement critics say entrenches sectarianism even as many younger Iraqis increasingly reject it.
Official results are expected within several days, though few Iraqis expect the outcome to alter what many describe as a stagnant and deeply divided political landscape.
Source: Reuters
Written By Rodney Mbua
