Japan’s ruling coalition collapsed on Friday after junior partner Komeito severed ties with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), a dramatic move that throws LDP leader Sanae Takaichi’s bid to become Japan’s first female prime minister into uncertainty.
Takaichi, a staunch conservative and close ally of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, was elected LDP president in a weekend vote, positioning her to replace outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
However, she must first secure majority support in parliament, a task now complicated by the breakup of the 26-year-old coalition.
Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito announced the split, citing an “inadequate” explanation from the LDP regarding a long-running political funding scandal. “Trust has been lost,” Saito told party members, confirming that Komeito would not back Takaichi in the parliamentary vote to select the next prime minister.
The vote, initially expected around October 15, is likely to be delayed.
The LDP currently falls 37 seats short of a majority in the powerful lower house, meaning Takaichi must seek new allies or face an opposition challenge. Under Japan’s parliamentary rules, a candidate who wins a simple majority in the first round becomes prime minister.
If no one achieves that threshold, the top two contenders proceed to a runoff.
With Komeito’s exit, Takaichi may turn to the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), whose leader Yuichiro Tamaki has drawn attention for his pragmatic yet expansionary economic stance.
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) has hinted it could support Tamaki, setting up a potential showdown that could usher in an opposition-led government.
“The coalition split opens the door for a new political realignment,” said Takahide Kiuchi, an economist at Nomura Research Institute. “If opposition parties and Komeito unite behind Tamaki, markets will likely reverse their recent rally based on expectations of Takaichi’s fiscal policies.”
Financial markets reacted swiftly. The yen strengthened by 0.5% to 152.38 per dollar, recovering from an eight-month low earlier this week as investors reconsidered the outlook for fiscal expansion under Takaichi.
Komeito Secretary General Makoto Nishida declared that Japan had entered “an era of the multi-party system,” pledging that his party would serve as “the axis of centrist, reform-oriented political forces.”
The LDP, which has dominated Japanese politics for most of the postwar era, also lacks a majority in the less powerful upper house, leaving Takaichi’s path to the premiership more uncertain than ever.
Source: Reuters
Written By Rodney Mbua
