Kalonzo Musyoka has emerged as the dominant opposition figure ahead of the 2027 elections, according to new nationwide polling by Kenyan pollster Mizani Africa.
The veteran politician leads the field with 39.6 percent aggregate support, posting the strongest cross regional appeal among all opposition contenders.
Lower Eastern remains his firmest base with 73.9 percent support, but the data shows his influence stretches far beyond Ukambani. He scores 34.1 percent in Mt. Kenya, 40.7 percent at the Coast, 40.9 percent in the Rift Valley, and 42.9 percent in Nairobi.
Analysts argue that this spread positions him as the most broadly acceptable opposition candidate and the one best placed to unify diverse blocs under a single platform.
Dr Fred Matiang’i ranks second with 22.5 percent, buoyed mainly by South Nyanza where he commands 67.5 percent.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua stands at 13.1 percent, maintaining a solid foothold in Mt. Kenya at 33.3 percent but showing limited appeal elsewhere.
Other contenders, among them Martha Karua, David Maraga, Eugene Wamalwa, Natembeya, and Okiya Omtatah, remain marginal in national influence. A 13.4 percent undecided bloc indicates some voter movement is still possible, although it does not threaten Musyoka’s lead.
The broader party landscape echoes these dynamics. UDA continues to dominate the national stage, holding majorities in Rift Valley and North Eastern and maintaining strong showings across Coast and Western.
ODM remains entrenched in Nyanza with 55.8 percent support and retains significant numbers in Coast, Nairobi, and Western.
DCP has emerged as a major force in Mt. Kenya with 37.3 percent, while Jubilee shows scattered pockets of resilience. Wiper remains highly regional but commands Lower Eastern with 52.7 percent.
Musyoka has framed his 2027 bid as a make or break moment, declaring it is now or never for his presidential ambition.
He has ruled out stepping aside for any candidate, saying he has already sacrificed three times.
His strategy centres on expanding alliances, courting disgruntled ODM members, intensifying grassroots tours, and campaigning on a platform that includes abolishing the housing levy.
But his long political career continues to draw scrutiny. Critics point to a pattern of shifting allegiances that earned him the “watermelon” label, citing past moves such as abandoning his 2007 bid to serve as Vice President under Mwai Kibaki, joining Odinga as running mate in 2022 after earlier insisting he would not, and missing the controversial 2018 swearing in.
Despite these inconsistencies, Musyoka’s current polling strength makes him a central figure in the 2027 contest. With the right alliances, he could present President William Ruto with his toughest challenge yet.
However Man-stevo in his usual demeanor, maintains that opinion polls are basically ‘sponsored by President Ruto’
