The National Treasury projects Kenya could earn up to Sh371 billion ($2.9 billion) from the proposed Field Development Plan (FDP) for oil Blocks T6 and T7 in Turkana County. This peak revenue estimate assumes an average global oil price of $70 per barrel over the project’s lifespan.
According to Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, the potential earnings are highly sensitive to market fluctuations:
At $70/barrel: Projected revenue of Sh371 billion ($2.9 billion).
At $60/barrel: Projected revenue drops to Sh136 billion ($1.05 billion).
At $50/barrel: Government earnings could fall further to approximately Sh53.3 billion ($411 million).
Commercial production is targeted to begin by December 2026, pending Parliamentary approval of the FDP.
Initial production is estimated at 20,000 barrels per day (bpd), eventually scaling up to 50,000 bpd.
The project involves an estimated $6 billion investment by the current contractor, Gulf Energy.State agencies are also expected to benefit, with Kenya Pipeline Company projected to earn Sh42.3 billion in storage and handling fees, and the Kenya Ports Authority earning Sh41.9 billion.
The project is expected to create over 3,000 direct and indirect jobs.
While the Treasury maintains the project will not add to public debt, the Auditor-General has raised concerns that proposed revisions to fiscal terms—specifically raising the cost-recovery ceiling to 85%—could delay and reduce the state’s share of profits.
Additionally, contractors have requested fiscal concessions totaling approximately Sh173 billion ($1.331 billion), which are currently under review.
By Anthony Solly
