Written by Were Kelly
A new analysis of social media discourse has uncovered a dramatic and dangerous resurgence of toxic tribal rhetoric in Kenya, threatening to dismantle the unified, tribeless motion that defined the youth-led protests of 2024. The study, conducted by research firms OdipoDev and Tribeless Youth, found that daily mentions of ethnicity on the platform X have surged from 6,000 in 2024 to 10,000 in 2025, with nearly half of all such posts this year carrying a hostile tone. Published in the Saturday Nation on Saturday, 8 November 2025, the report warns that this escalating online polarisation, driven by political actors and automated campaigns, risks fuelling violence in the lead-up to the 2027 general elections.
The findings stand in stark contrast to the national mood just 18 months prior, when a spontaneous, leaderless uprising of primarily Gen Z Kenyans captured the world’s attention. That movement, organised online and executed through street protests against police brutality and graft, was notable for its explicit rejection of the ethnic patronage that has long characterised the country’s politics.
It fostered a brief but powerful hope for a new political dawn. The latest research, which scrutinised more than six million X posts from 1 January 2024 to 31 October 2025, indicates that hope is being systematically eroded. The analysis focused on conversations concerning Kenya’s ten largest ethnic groups, identifying the Kikuyu, Luo, and Kalenjin communities as the primary hotspots for online animosity, reflecting deep-seated historical political rivalries.
According to the report, the digital landscape is now being actively manipulated. “Political actors, bots, and online influencers are exploiting the tribeless movement, luring youth into ethnic divides through coordinated campaigns,” the research states. It further identified significant inauthentic activity, with disinformation campaigns often using Sheng and Kiswahili to mask their origins and appear more organic to local users. Patricia Andago, the Head of Research at OdipoDev, emphasised the high stakes, stating, “The greatest impact if this trend continues is that the efforts made in 2024 when the tribeless narrative came up could be erased.”
The timing of this tribal resurgence is particularly critical given the demographic shift expected to shape the 2027 polls. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) estimates that at least 6.8 million new voters, predominantly from Gen Z, will be eligible to cast their ballots.
This cohort is projected to constitute 39% of the electorate, a powerful bloc with the potential to redefine the nation’s political landscape. Political analyst Prof. Macharia Munene has previously highlighted this generation’s potential to disrupt the status quo, noting, “Gen Zs are likely to erode the influence of the so-called regional kingpins. They will no longer enjoy the influence they have wielded in past elections.”
However, the organised return of tribal vitriol online poses a direct threat to this potential for change, raising grim parallels with Kenya’s volatile electoral history. The country’s elections have repeatedly been marred by ethnic tensions, most catastrophically following the disputed 2007 presidential poll. The resulting crisis left over 1,000 people dead and hundreds of thousands displaced, with atrocities such as the burning of 50 women and children sheltering in a church in Kiambaa village seared into the national memory. The United Nations has consistently warned that without stronger institutions and accountability, Kenya’s electoral cycle remains a potent risk for renewed conflict.
The publication of the study in the Saturday Nation has already sparked vigorous online debate, though the nature of the reaction has been mixed, with some users diverting discussions to unrelated topics. This fragmented engagement underscores the challenge of maintaining a focused national conversation on the issue. As the country looks toward 2027, the central question remains whether the digital savvy and unified spirit that propelled the Gen Z movement can be marshalled to counter the resurgent forces of division, or if the promise of a new political era will be eclipsed by the old and destructive politics of ethnic allegiance.
