In a dramatic political turnaround, Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is projected to win Canada’s federal election, propelled by a wave of anti-Trump sentiment that has reshaped the country’s political landscape.
Just months ago, the Liberals were considered politically obsolete. Now, they are on track to form the next government. Whether they will secure a majority remains uncertain as results are still being tallied.
Here are four key takeaways from an election where the Conservatives made major gains but ultimately fell short:
1. Trump’s Influence Dominated the Campaign
U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive rhetoric and tariff threats loomed large over the election, turning national leadership and economic sovereignty into central campaign issues.
Mark Carney capitalized on this dynamic, running not only against Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre but also positioning himself as a bulwark against Trump. Throughout the campaign, Carney warned that Canada faced a pivotal moment, often saying, “Trump wants to break us so America can own us.”
In contrast, Poilievre largely avoided mentioning Trump, keeping his focus on domestic issues like inflation, housing affordability, and crime—criticizing the Liberals’ record in these areas.
2. A Remarkable Debut for Carney
At the beginning of the year, Mark Carney was a political outsider, known for his work as a central banker. By March, he was being sworn in as prime minister after winning the Liberal leadership and an Ottawa-area seat in the House of Commons—all without previous elected experience.
Following former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s unexpected resignation in January, Carney seized the opportunity to enter the political arena and led his party to a stunning electoral comeback.
3. Conservatives Grow, But Not Enough
Although they failed to form a government, the Conservatives still made significant gains. With about half of the polls reporting, the party is projected to capture around 41% of the vote—surpassing the 39.6% that won them a majority in 2011.
Led by Pierre Poilievre, the Conservatives are on track to win 149 seats, up from 120 when the election was called in March. Under different circumstances, this performance could have delivered a victory.
4. New Democrats Suffer a Major Blow
This election proved devastating for smaller parties, particularly the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP). Many voters opted for the two main parties, squeezing out alternatives.
The NDP’s support plummeted to just 5% of the national vote, a steep drop from the 18% they secured in 2021. Their sharp decline signals a broader consolidation of voter support around the Liberals and Conservatives.
