Global benchmark crude oil prices settled into a narrow range on August 1, 2025, with Brentcrude trading at approximately $71.74 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) near$69.27, reflecting both investor caution and underlying volatility in the market.
After a more than 1 percent dip in the previous session, prices rebounded modestly as tensions between fresh supply from OPEC+ and geopolitical uncertainties continue to shape sentiment.
Investors remain attentive to the new U.S. tariffs that came into force on August 1, introducing import duties ranging from 10 percent to 41 percent for countries including China, India and Canada.
The trade policy uncertainty has raised fears of a slowdown in global economic growth and dampened demand for oil. At the same time, threats of further secondary tariffs on nations still importing Russian oil including potential impacts on 2.75 million barrels per day are creating supply risks that could support elevated prices.
Boosting the supply side, OPEC+ has formally confirmed a production increase of 548,000barrels per day in August, following a similar scale of hike in July. This continues the group’s gradual easing of prior voluntary cuts, contributing to an expanding global oil surplus.
Analysts warn that rising supply may begin to overwhelm moderate demand growth, exerting downward pressure on price.
A Reuters poll of 37 analysts forecasts that, despite such headwinds, Brent may average about $67.84 per barrel in 2025, while WTI is likely to average $64.61.
Prices are expected to drift lower in 2026 Brent potentially softening to $62.98 unless geopolitical disruptions intervene.
Underlying fundamentals show rising non-OPEC+ production, robust summer demand and elevated geopolitical risk premiums remain key variables.
Oil surged earlier in late June amid flare‑ups in the Middle East, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, when Iran threatened to block the vital shipping channel. Those events briefly lifted prices, but markets stabilized thereafter as tensions faded.
Forecast models suggest Brent could average between $66 and $69 in the second half of 2025, gradually tapering toward $58 by mid‑2026 as global supply continues to outpace consumption, according to projections by agencies such as the EIA, IEA, and Goldman Sachs, among others.
In summary, on August 1, 2025, crude oil prices held firm at around $71.74 for Brent and$69.27for WTI, supported by geopolitical uncertainty even as OPEC+ increases production. While short‑term risk remains elevated, long-term pressures from supply growth and trade-related demand headwinds point to potential price softening in coming months.
Written By Ian Maleve
