Kenya’s political landscape is entering a decisive phase as the opposition struggles to rally behind a single presidential candidate to face William Ruto in 2027.
The ruling coalition, powered by ODM’s loyal grassroots machinery and Deputy President Kithure Kindiki’s ability to draw mammoth crowds, is projecting strength and cohesion. In contrast, the opposition looks fractured and vulnerable, risking a repeat of past disunity that could hand Ruto a clear path to a second term.
Already, partisan designers have begun circulating graphics of imagined “unity governments”, a trend that has fueled endless online debates about the opposition’s inability to present a united front. Calls for unity from opposition rallies betray deep fractures beneath the surface. Behind closed doors, parties continue to resist pressure to step down their aspirants in favour of agreed candidates.
The rifts are evident in recent by-election manoeuvres. In Mbeere North, DCP’s candidate and front runner Dancun Mbui ditched the party after it endorsed DP’s Newton Karish. Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria swiftly seized the moment, welcoming Mbui and turning him into a front runner under his wing.
In Banisa, DCP’s Adan Mohamed stepped aside for UDA’s Ahmed Maalim Hassan, after residents insisted the late MP’s brother should carry on his legacy. Yet in the same Banisa race, Martha Karua’s People’s Liberation Party announced its own candidate Isaac Malela, signalling just how deep the divisions run.
Everyone is chest-thumping
Martha Karua, the veteran reformist, has declared her presidential bid to the warm embrace of the civic community. A former Justice Minister and Raila Odinga’s 2022 running mate, she is celebrated for her consistency on matters of governance and rule of law.
Yet critics note her limited national appeal and point to her failure to deliver votes for Odinga even in her Gichugu backyard.
Kalonzo Musyoka, the Wiper leader, insists he will not play kingmaker again. A former vice president and foreign minister, Kalonzo retains a loyal base in Ukambani and pockets of the coast.
However, his repeated habit of stepping aside in past elections has bred doubts about his resolve. His own words, that he would be “stupid to support Raila Odinga again”, remain a haunting reminder of his political indecision.
Fred Matiang’i, the former Interior Cabinet Secretary, is being whispered about as a potential compromise candidate. With technocratic credentials and vast financial muscle from his Gusii diaspora networks, Matiang’i commands quiet influence. After retreating from politics in 2022, he remains a polarising figure.
To some, he is a persecutor from the Uhuru years; to others, a no-nonsense leader admired by Gen Z who endured his strict education reforms. His candidacy could revive the discreet hand of Uhuru Kenyatta, still lurking in the shadows.
Rigathi Gachagua, once Ruto’s deputy until his impeachment in 2024, faces the hardest climb. Legal obstacles may cloud his eligibility, but he insists his Democracy for Citizens Party is intact. From his Murima stronghold, Gachagua maintains that his grassroots machinery is ready, whether for his own run or to swing support to another opposition figure.
Looming in the background is Raila Odinga. Now working in partnership with Ruto, the ODM leader has been vague on whether his party will field a candidate in 2027. Many analysts believe that his ambivalence has effectively removed ODM from the opposition chessboard.
Meanwhile, Ruto stands assured. As the anchor of a broad-based government, blending state resources with some of Kenya’s most skilled mobilisers, he remains unchallenged for now. His alliance with Raila has redrawn the political map and left the opposition scrambling for coherence.
For the moment, Ruto waits. The more the opposition dithers, the slimmer its chances of standing up to state power and the ruling coalition’s inroads.
