It is proving to be one of the highest-quality fights for survival in Premier League history.

After wins for Leeds United, Tottenham Hotspur and Nottingham Forest over the bank holiday weekend, the quest for safety is hotting up.

It has been a game of who will blink first over the past couple of months with the three sides all in danger of finishing in the third and final relegation place – Forest, Spurs and West Ham – having only lost one of their past nine Premier League games between them.

It is a battle that has had all the twists and turns, controversy and defining moments usually associated with a title race.

As West Ham found out the hard way on Saturday afternoon when they were thrashed 3-0 by Brentford, poor performances and dropped points are being punished emphatically by rivals this time around.

The improved quality of the teams in and around the drop zone means for the first time since the 2015-16 season, a team will be relegated from the Premier League with 36 points or more.

Speaking on BBC Radio 5 Live’s Monday Night Club, journalist Rory Smith said: “Someone is going down with a lot of points, that is the reality of it.

“In the last two seasons, the bottom three didn’t crack 30 points, and we talked a lot about the idea that the promoted teams were at such a massive financial disadvantage that they couldn’t compete.

“They have all responded when the pressure has been really high. They have all found form.

“Since the game against [Manchester] City in November, Leeds have been upper‑mid‑table in terms of form. Forest have come good a little bit later on.

“And Spurs and West Ham – although they are the two in danger – one of them will go down with a lot more points than any team for quite a long time.”

Can’t stop winning – but still can’t stay up?

By beating Chelsea 3-1 at Stamford Bridge on Monday, Nottingham Forest extended their unbeaten run in the Premier League to seven matches.

It moved them six points clear of 18th-placed West Ham, and restored their five-point advantage over Spurs in 17th.

Although not confirmed mathematically, the three points should be enough to seal Forest’s place in the Premier League next season.

After a season marred by three managerial changes at the City Ground, Forest will be indebted to Vitor Pereira if survival is achieved.

Since replacing Sean Dyche in February, the 57-year-old has lost only two of his nine Premier League matches in charge.

Pereira’s side are unbeaten in matches against Manchester City, Tottenham, Aston Villa, Sunderland and Chelsea.

In their past three games, Forest have remarkably scored 12 times and conceded just twice to improve their goal difference from -12 to -2. It could effectively act as an extra point at the end of the season.

Spurs, on the other hand, followed up a first Premier League win of 2026 last week by earning a vital victory against a much-changed Aston Villa side on Sunday night.

After three matchdays in the relegation zone, the win meant Spurs, last season’s Europa League winners, climbed out of the bottom three and leapfrogged West Ham.

Speaking on Monday Night Club, former Manchester City and Newcastle United goalkeeper Shay Given said: “It’s so tight now. It’s between two, realistically. The rest are home and dry. Maybe not mathematically, but they are done and dusted.

“It’s a huge week for Tottenham. Forget about the tactics, forget about the managers, forget about the boardroom. It’s about the result. It’s three points – the lift that will give the lads.

“Imagine them going into training today. A few weeks back, the Spurs stadium has been nearly empty towards the end of games. You could see them in the away end yesterday – the place was rocking.

“It’s just that feeling, the human feeling of ‘we’ve won a game of football. We’re out of the relegation zone. We’ve flipped with West Ham‘.”

However, it is not all doom and gloom for the Hammers despite their precarious position.

They have actually improved significantly in the past three months and, since suffering back-to-back defeats in January, have only lost four of their past 14 Premier League matches.

But if any club are aware that it can sometimes be too little, too late, then it is West Ham.

The east Londoners have the unwanted record of accumulating the most points in the final eight games of the season (15) of any side to be relegated from the Premier League.

In more recent times, Newcastle United – the last team to be relegated from the Premier League with 36 points or more – hold the record for the longest unbeaten run at the end of a season (six games) by a team relegated to the Championship.

If Forest, Spurs and West Ham maintain their current run of form, one of the three could end the season with a similarly unwanted place in the Premier League record books.

How many points will be needed this season?

In a season that has produced so many twists and turns, it is impossible to predict what will come next.

Since the Premier League became a 20-team format in 1995, the average number of points needed for safety has been 36.

But that will not be enough this time around given that West Ham have already reached that tally and currently occupy the third and final relegation place.

“West Ham had been the form team out of the three clubs,” said Smith.

“Until the Brentford game [on Saturday], you looked at them and thought, ‘Nuno [Espirito Santo] has got a really strong tactical discipline there and has shaped them into a proper team’.

“They looked totally doomed in January but Nuno took them from that and managed to craft a bit of an identity, and they did seem to put a little bit of a run together.

“So Saturday came as a real shock – against a team that hadn’t won in eight games. To put in that performance having built up a little bit of steam is worrying.”

According to data experts Opta, the Hammers are now favourites (77.71%) to be relegated, with Tottenham at 22.03% and Forest just 0.13%.

If the three sides continue picking up points at their current rate, then it will be the Hammers who are relegated to the second tier for the first time since 2011.

The 2023 Conference League winners are averaging 1.03 points per game, which would mean they finish the season on 39 points.

Tottenham‘s return of 1.06 points per game puts them on course to finish on 40 points, while Forest are on track to secure safety for a fourth consecutive season by earning a tally of 46 points.

In a relegation battle like no other, will the Premier League have one final shock in store?

Qualifying for the Champions League is now a near-impossible dream for a Chelsea side whose season is ending in disarray.

Monday’s 3-1 home defeat by Nottingham Forest leaves the managerless Blues ninth in the Premier League as their campaign continues to collapse.

Joao Pedro’s stoppage-time overhead kick did save Chelsea the humiliation of losing six matches in a row without scoring for the first time in their history, but it was scant consolation.

The defeat means the Blues have now lost six consecutive league games for the first time since November 1993 – and just the fourth time ever.

It is just the second time they have lost four successive home matches, and the first time since 1978.

Large numbers of home fans piled out of Stamford Bridge long before the final whistle, while those who remained left the home side in no doubt about their anger with loud jeers.

Chelsea, now led by interim boss Calum McFarlane after Liam Rosenior’s dismissal, are an insurmountable 10 points behind fifth-placed Aston Villa – the last spot that guarantees Champions League football – with just three games left.

Should Villa win the Europa League and finish fifth, a sixth-placed finish would be enough, but even Chelsea‘s four-point gap to that spot looks tough to bridge given their form.

Ex-Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher told Sky Sports: “It’s shocking and it comes from the top, that’s where it starts from. There were five or six really top players on that pitch today and they’ve been beaten by Nottingham Forest‘s B team.

“If you think less than 12 months ago [Chelsea] were taking PSG to the cleaners. There’s no connection between the players and the staff, the players and the supporters.

“There’s absolutely nothing there and it looks like a broken football club right now.”

Former Chelsea goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer added on BBC Radio 5 Live: “Chelsea are running out of excuses now.

“Chelsea did not look like a side who have something so big [the FA Cup final] on the horizon and that is what is so disappointing.

“They were outfought and there was a lack of desire. The players have to start taking responsibility.”

Qualifying for the Champions League was always the target for owners BlueCo this season, so how costly could missing out prove?

What’s the cost?

Whoever Chelsea appoint as their next head coach – with former Real Madrid manager Xabi Alonso, Bournemouth boss Andoni Iraola and Fulham‘s Marco Silva among those in contention – will have to navigate the forthcoming transfer window astutely.

In their recently published 2024-25 accounts, Chelsea reported a Premier League‑record £262m pre‑tax loss despite bringing in £490.9m in revenue – the club’s second highest ever.

Following their triumph in last year’s Club World Cup and a now rare season in the Champions League, Chelsea are predicting revenues will increase to £700m in next year’s accounts.

However, forward Cole Palmer said in an interview this month that “everything changes” without Champions League football.

Chelsea earned approximately £78.9m in prize money for reaching the last 16 of European club football’s premier competition this season compared to about £15m for winning the Conference League in 2025.

A conservative estimate would suggest those Champions League earnings rise beyond £100m when ticketing, hospitality and sponsorship revenue are included.

Accounts from parent company 22 Holdco Limited show transfer activity is a major factor behind the substantial losses, and the success of the men’s team is a “clear driver” of revenues – while Chelsea are reliant on owner funding and loans to subsidise the club, which has long-term implications.

In the short term, Chelsea are bound by their Uefa settlement agreement after breaching their football earnings and squad cost rules in 2023-24.

The regulations stipulate Chelsea cannot record losses of more than £52.2m once certain Uefa allowances are applied when filing their accounts at the end of June.

Any loss beyond that threshold would result in a fine of up to £17.4m, while losses exceeding £69.7m would trigger a one‑season ban from European competition, provided they qualify within three seasons following the breach.

That pressure continues into the 2028-29 season, with Uefa constantly monitoring Chelsea‘s situation.

“Chelsea have avoided Premier League sanctions through the use of related party transactions [in the past], which involves selling hotels and the women’s team to other companies owned by 22 Holdco,” football finance expert Kieran Maguire told BBC Sport.

“At a group level, these transactions are excluded which helps explain why 22 Holdco, which also owns both the women’s team and Strasbourg, recorded a bigger pre-tax loss of £701m in 2024-25 compared to Chelsea FC Holding’s loss of ‘just’ £262m.

“Such intra-group transactions are allowed in the Premier League cost control rules, but are specifically excluded from Uefa’s rules. This is why Chelsea are under Uefa’s sanctions at present but not from the Premier League.”

Anger grows towards owners

Chelsea may have won the football lottery twice but, this time, the return on investment under owners Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital is being questioned.

Chants of “we don’t care about Clearlake, they don’t care about us, all we care about is Chelsea FC” are increasingly becoming the anthem of a turbulent season.

Not A Project CFC, a growing but still fringe protest group, are planning two further protests. The first will take place on the steps of Wembley Way before the FA Cup final against Manchester City. A second protest to take place inside Stamford Bridge, where fans are asked to turn their backs in the 22nd minute of the final home game vs Tottenham.

There have also been previous chants of “Roman Abramovich” but those recollections are rose-tinted, particularly towards the end of the Russian oligarch’s reign, where Chelsea were widely regarded as a cup team and had lagged behind their rivals in terms of revenues.

The £490.9m turnover last season was Chelsea‘s second highest on record but still lagged well behind their rivals in the so-called ‘big six’. That gap needs to be bridged as debt grows within the parent company.

Inside Chelsea they say debt is part of a highly-structured investment approach, common in elite sport, and there is a long-term plan for sustainability.

Still, Chelsea spent the most on agents’ fees and the third most on both transfers and wages last season, despite a reduction in overall spending following the unprecedented outlay in the early BlueCo years.

The cost remains evident through a league-high ‘amortisation’ bill – where they have spread transfer fees across the length of a contract up to five years – of more than £200m.

What has been squandered by this ownership is the strong Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) position they inherited. More than £1.5bn has been spent on talent, but the return in terms of consistent success in the Premier League has yet to materialise.

Chelsea are looking to add some experience to their squad at the end of the season, but more drastic decisions are not being discussed openly, with mid-campaign decisions to be avoided, especially with an FA Cup final still to come.

Yet, club sources have also stressed that accountability across the organisation is embedded through annual reviews and could draw in anyone at any level should poor performance be identified.

The possibility of star players such as Palmer, Moises Caicedo and Levi Colwill being sold is constantly denied by the club, but some player sales have always been necessary, since Abramovich and into the BlueCo era, to balance the books.

“Chelsea have always been very successful in terms of player sales, which have generated substantially more money for the club than ticket sales over the last decade,” Maguire said.

“The 22 Holdco business model is similar to that of a hedge fund in that signing young players on long-term contracts can be profitable and reduces the chances of players leaving on a Bosman deal for no fee.”

However, everything is threatened, even attracting a new high-profile manager, without Champions League football.

Morgan-Gibbs White might need a “miracle” to be ready for Nottingham Forest‘s Europa League semi-final second leg against Aston Villa – but his head coach Vitor Pereira is hopeful.

Gibbs-White and Chelsea goalkeeper Robert Sanchez both had to come off with their heads bandaged after they collided during Forest’s 3-1 Premier League win at Stamford Bridge on Monday.

Forest, unbeaten in 10 matches in all competitions, take a 1-0 lead into Thursday’s match at Villa Park.

“He has a deep cut, we will see, he is a fighter and we hope for a miracle,” said Pereira.

“We’ll see what happens. I really believe we can have him next game. I said to him: Don’t head the ball, just play.”

The midfielder posted a photo on social media on Monday night, thanking people for their messages and showing the stitches across his forehead and nose.

Sanchez also posted a photo of some stitches at the top of his head and added in reference to Gibbs-White: “Seen that you came out worst [worse] than me, hope you are OK big man.”

Pereira said that Gibbs-White’s substitution was not related to concussion, so he is not subject to strict protocols surrounding such head injuries.

That means that his availability for Thursday is only dependent on whether the cut on his face heals in time.

Had Gibbs-White been judged to be concussed, he would probably have been ruled out. Players must not return to activity for at least 24 hours before undergoing a 48-hour period of rest and a six-stage “return to play” process.

Premier League teams are permitted to make one concussion replacement per match, which do not count towards their usual substitution limits. Chelsea used that dispensation during Monday’s match for youngster Jesse Derry.

The 18-year-old, who was making his debut, clashed heads with Forest’s Zach Abbott and was taken to hospital. Chelsea said he was “conscious, talking and undergoing precautionary checks”.

Phil Foden has reached an agreement in principle over a new four-year deal at Manchester City.

The 25-year-old’s current contract was due to expire next summer but fresh terms will keep him at Etihad Stadium until 2030, with the option of another year.

Though midfielder Foden has struggled for form in recent months and has not scored since 14 December, a new contract signals a commitment from both parties to continue working together.

Foden came on as a substitute in Monday’s six-goal thriller at Everton, which leaves City five points adrift of Premier League leaders Arsenal with a game in hand.

The midfielder will be hoping to secure a place in Thomas Tuchel’s England squad for this summer’s World Cup.

Last month, boss Tuchel said Foden’s place in the squad is not guaranteed despite being the only player to start both games in England’s final camp before the tournament.

Foden was given his first-team debut as a 17-year-old by boss Pep Guardiola and has gone on to make 365 appearances for City, winning six Premier League titles, one Champions League and two FA Cups.

Despite his recent form, former Manchester United and England captain Wayne Rooney says Foden has to “play every game” for City.

“I think you have to put him in the team,” he said on the BBC’s Wayne Rooney Show. “I love watching him play, I love his little movements, how he gets into the pockets of space. It’s not nice watching him sitting on the bench.

“I think he was doing well [this season]. He’s had bad moments, but when you have a bad moment and you’re taken out and put on the sidelines for weeks on end, I just think a player of that quality, you have to just keep playing him.

“You’ve got [Jeremy] Doku there who can do anything. You’ve got [Antoine] Semenyo, who can go outside, come inside. It’s real power, pace and raw speed going up against you, so I don’t know whether that’s a reason why Foden’s not playing. Pep may want a little bit more help defensively.”

Chelsea have added former Barcelona boss Xavi to their shortlist as they attempt to find a replacement for Liam Rosenior. The former Strasbourg boss was sacked last month after just three months at the helm at Stamford Bridge.

Calum McFarlane has been put in caretaker charge until the end of the campaign while club chiefs attempt to find a long-term successor. A number of names have already been linked with a move.

And according to The Independent, Chelsea have four names in mind that fit in with the footballing philosophy that the club’s owners have attempted to implement. Xabi Alonso, Porto’s Franceso Farioli and Cesc Fabregas are all in that mould – albeit it is believed that the latter will not be leaving Italian side Como this summer.

Another candidate being eyed by Chelsea is former Barcelona boss Xavi. It is thought that the Spaniard fits well into the school of thought that Chelsea are trying to enforce.

The Spaniard is also keen to return to football, having been out of work since leaving Barcelona, albeit he wants a ‘project’ which might not lend itself to the volatile working environment at Stamford Bridge.

Xavi is not the only Spanish coach to have been linked with Chelsea since Rosenior’s exit. Outgoing Bournemouth boss Andoni Iraola was thought to be on the club’s shortlist.

He is indeed admired but there are concerns that his style is a slight departure from Chelsea’s current philosophy, which leaves the club in a dilemma over whether to stick with their original plan or divert.

Iraola, however, will likely be available, having seen a return to Athletic Bilbao ruined for the time being. The Spanish side have confirmed that Edin Terzic will be replacing Ernesto Valverde from next season.

Chelsea chiefs have concerns over Andoni Iraola(Image: Getty Images)

A statement from the Spanish side read: “Athletic Club and Edin Terzić have reached an agreement for the German coach to be the manager of the first team for the next two seasons, until June 30, 2028. “The coach will be officially presented once the season concludes, for which four very important and exciting matches remain.”

Jamie Carragher is already among those to have backed Iraola for a move to West London. He said: “When you see someone like Iraola, I don’t think you could ever fall out of love with his team if you were a supporter. You understand what I mean?

“They always run. There’s always that running element. They will lose games. They will maybe pick up injuries because of the style of play.

“I would probably like to see it in a bigger job and how he adapts. It would be a lot more difficult with more games and probably would be a bit more injuries, a bit like Jurgen Klopp at Liverpool when Liverpool picked up injuries.”