By Andrew Kariuki

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna have emerged as the leading candidates in the race for Nairobi’s top political seats, according to a new opinion poll conducted by the Radio Africa Group.

The survey, carried out between July 25 and July 27, sampled 500 registered voters in Nairobi County and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.4 %.

In the gubernatorial race, Babu Owino holds a commanding lead with 42 % support among respondents.

The results place him 24 % points ahead of incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja, who registered 17.6% in the poll.

The findings suggest growing political momentum for Owino, whose outspoken leadership style and strong grassroots support have continued to shape Nairobi’s political landscape.

The poll also reflects mixed public perception of the current county administration, with a notable share of respondents rating Governor Sakaja’s performance as fair or poor.

According to the survey, the key issues influencing voter sentiment in Nairobi include unemployment and insecurity, which were cited by 24 % of respondents.

The rising cost of living followed at 20 % while concerns around garbage collection, sanitation, and infrastructure were also mentioned but ranked lower in priority.

Observers note that Owino’s strong showing may reflect his appeal among younger voters and residents frustrated by persistent urban challenges.

Meanwhile, in the Senate race, Senator Edwin Sifuna appears firmly in control with 47.5 % support, significantly ahead of Lang’ata MP Phelix Odiwuor, popularly known as Jalang’o, who polled 21.6 %.

Sifuna’s numbers indicate a solid voter base as he weighs whether to defend his Senate seat or pursue broader political ambitions, amid increasing calls from leaders in his home county of Bungoma.

The poll also highlights a complex political dynamic in Nairobi.

While Babu Owino appears to command a consolidated opposition support base, several candidates associated with the ruling coalition could end up splitting votes, potentially reshaping the final outcome of the gubernatorial contest.

In the Senate race, Sifuna’s lead may face competition from Jalang’o, who is widely seen as having influence within the current national administration.

Political analysts say the eventual outcome of Nairobi’s races may depend on whether parties aligned to the ruling coalition can unite behind a single candidate or continue to fragment their support, a scenario that could further strengthen the position of candidates currently leading in the polls.

The ‘Linda Mwananchi’ faction of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has opposed the registration of the ‘Linda Mwananchi Party’ as a political party, distancing itself from the outfit.

In a joint submission to the registrar of political parties through their legal representative, the leaders, including Nairobi senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, objected to the proposed registration of the faction as a political party, clarifying that the mover of the registration is not affiliated with their political movement.

The leaders said they have no links whatsoever with the Linda Mwananchi Party and warned the registrar against approving its registration under what they described as misleading associations.

In their submission, the politicians argued that allowing the party to proceed with registration could create confusion among supporters and the general public and would also lead to fraudulent conduct against the public.

“The political party is likely to use our clients’ names, images, and goodwill to fraudulently get financing either from members of the public or other entities,” read part of the submission. 

Their statement follows an earlier publication in one of the country’s newspapers, which stated that the faction was in the final stages of registration as a political party.

According to the publication, the individual spearheading the registration stated that the process is currently under review by the Office of the Registrar of Political Parties (ORPP), adding that he had formally applied to reserve the movement’s name pending approval.

Earlier, Suba South MP Caroli Omondi had distanced himself from the same, accusing the government of creating confusion among the public.

“Linda Mwananchi Party is not associated with us.

It is a normal ploy by the government state operatives to confuse the public. Ignore it,” Caroli wrote on his social media accounts.

The development comes at a time when the ODM party is facing internal wrangles, as the country heads towards the 2027 general elections.

The party has two factions: the Linda Mwananchi faction, which opposes ODM and supports the government, and the Linda Ground faction, which supports the reelection of President William Ruto in 2027.

The two factions have been traversing the country in efforts to consolidate supporters and sell their beliefs and stands to the public.

Following divisions in the party, the National Executive Committee (NEC) resolved in February to remove Sifuna as the party’s secretary general, a move that was, however, blocked by the court.

As divisions intensify, the party has announced that it will hold a delegates’ meeting on March 27, a meeting that might see new leadership elected and either widen or end the division.

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has dismissed claims that its 10-point agenda will lapse on March 7, stating that the initiative was never tied to a fixed deadline.

Party officials clarified that March 7 marks the first anniversary of the memorandum of understanding signed with the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) to address key national issues, not the end of the agreement.

Party Chairperson Gladys Wanga said ODM and UDA legislators will convene a joint Parliamentary Group meeting next week to assess progress and review implementation of the agenda.

“On Tuesday, there will be a joint PG of Kenya Kwanza and ODM, who are the signatories of the 10-point agenda, and a progress report will be provided by the team,” Wanga said.

She maintained that the agenda is ongoing and not subject to an expiry date.

“I want to correct the statement that the 10-point agenda is ending on the 7th (March); the agenda is moving this nation forward, the way it was discussed and canvassed. It does not have an end date. Looking at the issues of the NADCO report, corruption, strengthening devolution and debt, these cannot have an end date,” she added.

Agnes Zani, who chairs the 10-point agenda implementation committee, echoed that position and urged supporters not to be alarmed by the date.

“The committee is now ready with a report which will be given on March 7th, among other reports. March 7th also coincides with the signing of the MoU,” Zani said.

The agenda was signed in March 2025 by President William Ruto and the late former ODM leader Raila Odinga.

In August, a committee led by Zani was appointed with a six-month mandate to oversee implementation. That mandate is set to expire this Saturday.

ODM leaders addressed the issue following National Executive Committee deliberations attended by party leader Dr Oburu Oginga and other senior officials on Wednesday.

As March 7 approaches, internal divisions have surfaced within ODM. Some members argue that the date signals the end of the broad-based government arrangement, while others insist it marks only the first anniversary of the pact.

“Some people are misleading our supporters [into believing] that on March 7, we will part ways with the government. But on that day, we will receive an interim report on the 10-point agenda and celebrate the first anniversary,” Oginga said on Saturday in Migori County.

ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, however, noted that the agreement does not contain an extension clause.

“I have said this before: if anybody wants to extend this MoU, they must go to Bondo and get Baba’s signature. No other signature can be appended to extend the MoU because Baba, in his wisdom, did not ask for a provision for extension,” Sifuna said.