A constitutional provision requiring Bungoma Senator-elect Moses Wetang’ula to resign before running for National Assembly Speaker threatens to deprive Kenya Kwanza Alliance of the necessary numbers to secure the Senate Speaker seat.
In the Senate, President-elect William Ruto has a slim 24-23 majority. This means that if Mr. Wetang’ula resigns, Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition and Kenya Kwanza will be tied at 23 seats apiece, a deadlock that could tip the race, either way, depending on which side surrenders in a secret ballot.
The provision also puts Mr Wetang’ula in a difficult position because he would be taking a political risk by resigning but still losing the Speaker’s race because neither camp has the absolute numbers to guarantee a win.
Kenya Kwanza holds a slim 161-160 advantage in the National Assembly, despite a new battle to win over 12 newly elected independent MPs, four parliamentary races, and 12 nomination slots.
Even after accounting for the 20 nomination slots in the Senate, there will be a tie because UDA is set to take ten of them, with Azimio taking the remaining one.
Dr. Ruto has since reached out to Mandera Senator-elect Ali Roba of the United Democratic Movement (UDM). The Azimio-affiliated party currently holds two Senate seats and is vying for one nomination slot.
Dr. Ruto had signed a pre-election agreement with Mr. Wetang’ula that gave the Ford Kenya party leader the powerful Speaker position.
However, there are already talks about having the outgoing National Assembly Speaker, Justin Muturi, run for the seat in order to avoid a potentially costly gamble for the alliance.
“There shall be a Speaker for each House of Parliament, who shall be elected by that House in accordance with the Standing Orders, from among persons who are qualified to be elected as members of Parliament but are not such members,” states Article 106 of the constitution.
According to the House Standing Orders, a Speaker shall be elected when the House first meets following a General Election and prior to proceeding with any other business other than the oath of office by the new members.
In the face of a petition challenging the outcome of the presidential election, President Uhuru Kenyatta retains the authority to call the first session of Parliament, which should take place within 30 days of the August 9 elections.
Constitutional experts argue that Mr Wetang’ula can choose to delay taking the oath of office in order to compete for the position of National Assembly Speaker, and then resign based on the outcome of the race.
This, however, would mean that he would be unable to vote for the Speaker of the Senate, denying his alliance the necessary numbers.
If he takes the oath of office as Bungoma Senator, he will be disqualified from the race unless he tenders his resignation, which will result in a by-election. Choosing this path means that if he fails in his bid for Speaker, he may find himself campaigning for a seat he has already won.
Other than political affiliations, regional and other political dynamics are likely to influence the Speaker’s election.
For an outright victory, a candidate must obtain two-thirds of the members – 45 out of 67 in the Senate and 233 out of 349 in the National Assembly. If that fails, the two candidates who received the most votes in the first round advance to the second round. The winner is determined by a simple majority.
Azimio is said to be fronting Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka for the National Assembly Speaker and former National Assembly Speaker Kenneth Marende for the Senate seat.
