A high-level simulation of a Chinese military blockade of Taiwan has revealed Singapore as a potential lifeline for evacuating Southeast Asian nationals from the island, underscoring the city-state’s discreet but long-standing military ties with Taipei.
The two-day exercise, held in April at a Singapore hotel and organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), brought together about 40 serving and retired Asia-Pacific officials, military officers, and security scholars. According to four people familiar with the event, participants simulated a crisis in which China had sealed off Taiwan by air and sea, leaving as many as one million foreign nationals, 94% of them from Southeast Asia, stranded.
Delegates debated whether to coordinate through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) or negotiate directly with mock U.S., Chinese, and Japanese envoys for evacuation corridors. Progress stalled until the “Singapore” team intervened late in the exercise, offering an airlift plan that leveraged its access to Taiwanese airfields and aircraft, a benefit of its decades-old training presence on the island under the secretive Project Starlight.
While the exercise was unofficial and did not reflect formal policy, it provided a rare glimpse into contingency thinking as U.S.–China rivalry over Taiwan intensifies. Military analysts increasingly believe that any attempt by Beijing to seize the island could begin with a blockade, a move widely considered an act of war under international law.
Singapore rotates up to 3,000 troops annually through three training camps in southern Taiwan, where the terrain mirrors conditions in Southeast Asia. This presence, maintained since 1975, gives Singapore what one Western security official described as “a useful perch” to observe both the Taiwan Strait and the northern South China Sea.
China, which claims Taiwan as its territory, has long opposed the arrangement. In response to Reuters’ questions about the exercise, its foreign ministry reiterated its opposition to “any form of official relations” between countries recognising Beijing and Taiwan, warning against “playing with fire” on core interests.
The Philippines, home to one of the largest overseas communities in Taiwan, told Reuters it has its own contingency plans but offered no details. Indonesia and Vietnam, whose nationals also make up a large share of Taiwan’s migrant workforce, did not comment.
Security experts say the war game highlights a critical gap in regional preparedness. “A plan is one thing, but you need the access and the relationships to put it into play,” said Drew Thompson of Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. “Singapore has long had these ties; the question is whether others in Southeast Asia do.”
Written By Rodney Mbua
