Fresh polling from Mbeere North has sharpened an already charged contest into a statistical deadlock, with United Democratic Alliance (UDA) Leonard Wa Muthende and Democratic Party (DP’s) Newton Karish effectively tied as the by-election heads into its last stretch.
Mizani Africa’s latest numbers place Muthende at 44.6 percent and Karish at 42.4 percent, a margin so slim it disappears inside the survey’s three-point margin of error. The two are locked in a race where minor shifts in turnout or late-game persuasion could decide the next MP.
The poll leaves little room for surprises outside the main duel. Duncun Mbui, who was DCP’s candidate and front runner before switching to Moses Kuria’s Chama Cha Kazi (CCK), trails at 5.7 percent, while 7.3 percent of voters remain undecided.
Beneath the headline horse race is a constituency in the middle of a broader political reconfiguration.
UDA has risen steadily over the past three months, climbing from 26.7 percent in September to 44.1 percent on November 8, before easing to 38.9 percent on November 19. The slight drop appears more like a natural plateau after rapid gains.
DCP has staged an unexpected revival. This is due to a move to support the DP candidate and withdrawal of its flag-bearer and Rigathi Gachagua leading its campaigns in the region.
Its rebound to 33.1 percent by November 19 suggests the party is reclaiming lost ground and reasserting itself among voters who once drifted away in frustration.
DP continues its measured growth, now at 14.1 percent, while CCK maintains a minor presence. Meanwhile, the once-bloated “None” category has contracted sharply as previously undecided voters commit to party lines.
On the ground, the polling trends are reflected in the campaign machinery. Wamuthende is propped up by the full weight of government, with Deputy President Kithure Kindiki leading Cabinet Secretaries across the constituency to rally support. Karish counters with a resurgent DP under former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and a united opposition alliance keen to register a symbolic victory.
The stakes extend beyond Mbeere North. The contest is widely seen as a referendum on President William Ruto’s grip on the Mt Kenya vote, a year after the perceived political head of the region, Rigathi Gachagua, was pushed out of government.
Kindiki has urged the region to remain united, insisting it is still “technically” in government despite the upheavals.
The by-election is now less a campaign than a stress test of shifting loyalties, raw political muscle and the endurance of old regional alignments.
