A renowned elections forecaster on Thursday (September 5) released his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will win against former President Donald Trump in November’s presidential election.
“My prediction, based on the keys to the White House system, which has been proven right [in U.S. elections] for 40 years, is that we are going to have a precedent-breaking president – that Kamala Harris will become the first woman president of the United States,” said Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, D.C., in an interview with Reuters.
Lichtman successfully predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections using his election model based on 13 true-or-false questions that ignore the views of political pundits and pollsters.
While his election model favors Harris to win, the candidates’ stances on foreign policy – and real world events- could influence the outcome of the race. Despite this, Lichtman still believes Harris will come out on top.
“Can things change? Of course. I can’t predict what’s going to happen in the world and we have two fluid wars,” Lichtman said.
“Even if Harris lost both of my ‘foreign/military keys’, she still would be down only five keys, one short of the six keys that it takes to predict an incumbent party defeat,” he added.
The 2024 U.S. election takes place on November 5th. A candidate needs to amass 270 electoral votes to achieve victory. With many states leaning either solidly Republican or Democratic, a handful of so called battleground or swing states is likely to decide the election.
