Black Friday has shed its midnight madness, but it remains the symbolic start of a holiday shopping season defined by a critical question: Can a “holiday halo” of consumer spirit overcome economic anxiety and the impact of tariffs?
The classic images of Black Friday—doorbuster brawls and all-night mall lines—have faded, replaced by weeks of online deals. Yet, the day after Thanksgiving still draws the biggest in-store crowds of the year, cementing its role as the holiday season’s unofficial kickoff.
This year, the tradition is tested by a complex economic backdrop. While consumer confidence has dipped due to inflation and political uncertainty, spending has remained surprisingly resilient for key occasions. Retail executives report a “haly effect,” where shoppers become more discerning with everyday purchases but are still willing to splurge for the holidays.
“Consumers have been saying the economy is terrible while continuing to spend for years now,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “But business surveys also report consumers are being more sensitive to prices and selective in spending.”
This price sensitivity is amplified by the lingering effects of Trump administration tariffs. Data from Circana shows 40% of general merchandise saw prices jump at least 5% by September, with toys—80% of which are made in China—hit especially hard.
Despite these headwinds, early indicators are strong. The Mall of America reports foot traffic exceeding pre-pandemic 2019 levels, and online sales from November 1-23 surged 7.5% year-over-year to $79.7 billion.
The new shopping calendar has also crystallized. According to Adobe Analytics, the best online deals are now strategically timed: Thanksgiving for sporting goods, Black Friday for TVs and toys, and Cyber Monday for apparel and computers, where discounts could reach 25% off. The season’s fate now hinges on whether this calculated bargain-hunting can sustain a season of cheer.
By James Kisoo
