Most parts of Kenya are expected to receive heavy rainfall during the March–April–May (MAM) season, weather experts meeting in Nairobi have predicted.
They said the rains will start between mid and late March in Central Kenya and Nairobi, the Rift Valley highlands, and southern and western regions around Lake Victoria. These areas are also forecast to receive above-normal rainfall.
The rest of the country, except the Coast, is expected to receive near-normal rainfall for the season, with onset likely in early April. Coastal regions will experience drier-than-normal conditions.
The forecast, released in Nairobi by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), suggests the current drought affecting many parts of Kenya could ease within the next two months. However, its effects may persist for several months.
The outlook covers the wider Greater Horn of Africa region. It shows that Kenya and Somalia are likely to receive less rainfall compared to neighbouring countries.
“The outlook indicates a 45 per cent probability of wetter-than-normal rainfall over much of the Greater Horn of Africa, including most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, central to western Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Somalia and Djibouti,” ICPAC said.
Kenya Meteorological Department director Edward Muriuki said timely climate information is critical, especially for farmers affected by drought.
“Early warning services are essential in mitigating climate risks. They provide timely information that enables governments, communities and institutions to prepare for and respond effectively to climate-related hazards,” he said.
ICPAC cautioned farmers against assuming that good seasonal rainfall would mean continuous rain throughout the season.
“Despite the seasonal outlook, dry spells may still occur in areas forecast to receive near-normal or above-normal rainfall, while wet spells may occur in areas forecast to receive near-normal or below-normal rainfall,” the centre said.
The experts noted that although the March to May season is Kenya’s main rainfall period, it is also the most difficult to predict with high confidence.
“While the MAM season contributes a larger share of annual rainfall across much of the Greater Horn of Africa, seasonal anomalies are generally less predictable than in other seasons,” they said.
“This is largely due to the weak relationship between rainfall and global climate drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.”
They warned that conditions may change during the season, with local and month-to-month variations expected.
“Even in areas forecast to receive near-normal or above-normal rainfall, dry spells may occur and vice versa,” they said.
For Kenyan farmers emerging from a prolonged dry spell, the expected rains are welcome, but planning should remain flexible. Early planting may be possible in areas where rains begin on time in mid-March, but close monitoring of local forecasts will be essential, especially where dry breaks occur.
“Climate services, when timely, credible and user-driven, provide a powerful bridge between climate science and practical actions that protect lives and livelihoods and support sustainable development,” Environment Principal Secretary Dr Festus Ng’eno said.
The outlook also indicates that temperatures are likely to be above average across the country. Higher temperatures could increase water loss from soils and crops, making rainfall distribution more critical than total rainfall amounts.
ICPAC director Dr Abdi Fidar said the regional climate forum helps countries translate warnings into action.
“GHACOF remains a vital regional platform for building consensus on climate risks and turning seasonal forecasts into early action that protects lives, livelihoods and development across the Greater Horn of Africa,” he said.
