The late US Senator John McCain once joked that looking into Putin’s eyes, he saw “a K and a G and a B”—a wry nod to the Russian leader’s past as a Soviet intelligence officer.
That steely demeanor was on full display in recent footage from the Kremlin, where Putin sat across from American envoys exuding not just calm, but supreme confidence.
His assurance is strategic. President Putin believes the diplomatic tide is turning in his favor, buoyed by an improved relationship with Washington and steady gains on the battlefield.
Many analysts argue he now has little incentive to soften his core demands: Ukraine surrendering the remaining 20% of Donetsk; international recognition of all occupied territories; a permanently neutered Ukrainian military; and an eternal ban on NATO membership.
Given this stalemate, several scenarios are now plausible. The first hinges on Washington. President Donald Trump may attempt to force Ukraine into a ceasefire on terms it finds unacceptable—ceding land without receiving security guarantees robust enough to deter future Russian aggression.
Should Ukraine refuse or Russia block a deal, Trump has signaled he could disengage entirely, remarking last week that “sometimes you have to let people fight it out.”
Such a shift could see the withdrawal of vital U.S. intelligence that Ukraine relies on to intercept Russian drones and target facilities behind enemy lines.
A second, more grinding possibility is that the war simply stumbles on, with Russian forces continuing their slow, costly advances in the east. This trajectory aligns with the Trump administration’s emerging security framework, which now labels Russia a “competitor” rather than an “existential threat” and calls to “re-establish strategic stability” between the powers.
With American support in serious doubt, a critical question remains: what, if anything, could alter Putin’s calculus? And facing this new reality, what can Ukraine, Europe, and even other global actors like China, do differently to change the course of the war?
By James Kisoo
