Climate scientists have issued a stark warning that the world now has only two years left before exhausting the remaining carbon budget necessary to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Record-breaking greenhouse gas emissions in recent years are dramatically shrinking the safety margin for the planet, raising the urgency for immediate action to avoid climate tipping points.
The latest estimates put the 2025 carbon window at just 80 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent only enough to maintain a 66 percent chance of meeting the 1.5 °C target.
Global emissions in 2024 reached around 41.6 billion tonnes of CO₂, driven primarily by fossil fuels and land use changes, including deforestation.Although some regions show signs of stabilization, atmospheric CO₂ levels continue rising, now exceeding 430 parts per million at sites such as NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory.
Scientists at a climate conference in Exeter emphasized that emissions must be halved every five years starting in 2025 to align global trajectories with the Paris Agreement’s goals a roughly 12 percent annual reduction across sectors.
While the European Union achieved an 8.5 percent emissions reduction in 2023 the largest year-over-year drop since the pandemic many regions, particularly those with expanding fossil fuel use and energy-intensive industries, remain off track.
Forests, once a critical sink for CO₂, are losing their capacity due to widespread wildfires, drought, pests, and deforestation. In Europe, forests now absorb nearly one-third less carbon than a decade ago raising concerns they could turn into net emitters unless urgent restoration and conservation measures are taken.
Globally, totaling over 4 billion tonnes of emissions were released through extreme forest fires in 2023 and 2024 alone.
Kenya, speaking for vulnerable nations, continues to support global carbon pricing initiatives such as proposed shipping levies designed to cut emissions from maritime routes and support climate resilience in affected communities.
Kenya has submitted its second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC, targeting a 35 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 relative to business-as-usual projections equivalent to cutting 75.25 million tonnes of CO₂e.
Meeting this goal will require about US $56 billion in investment, of which 20 percent is expected from domestic resources and the remainder from international finance, technology, and carbon markets.
Economists argue that robust carbon pricing mechanisms including taxes and emissions trading systems are essential to achieving systemic emissions cuts. In 2023, thirty‑six countries raised approximately US $104 billion through such schemes, covering nearly a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions.
While emerging clean technologies such as expanded renewable power, electric vehicles, and low-carbon agriculture offer some hope, the speed and scale of adoption remain uneven. The global energy sector continues transitioning rapidly, yet rising electricity demand, heatwaves, and industrial growth threaten to offset gains.
The global emissions crisis represents a defining moment. Experts warn that without breakthrough leadership, international cooperation, and bold policy action, the planet may cross irreversible climate thresholds.
Written By Ian Maleve
