By Philip Mulee
Majority of the Luhya community supports the Opposition faction in the ongoing political realignment ahead of the 2027 General Elections, according to a new opinion poll by Infotrak Research and Consulting.
Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya was voted as the most influential leader in the Luhya community, according to the survey, released on Thursday January 8, 2026.
The poll said 50 per cent of the respondents named Natembeya as the leader who has the most influence on Abaluhya politics.
Prime Cabinet Secretary, Musalia Mudavadi, who is also Foreign and Diaspora Affairs Cabinet Secretary was the second most influential leader among the Luhya, coming at 32 per cent.
The poll further said Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who is also the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) secretary general, was third influential with 31 per cent.
The survey shows that 35 percent of respondents believe the Abaluhya should rally behind the Opposition as the country gears up for the next polls.
However, a significant proportion expressed support for the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) coalition.
According to the poll, 26 per cent of respondents said the Luhya community should back President William Ruto led Kenya Kwanza administration in the 2027 elections.
This indicates that the ruling alliance continues to enjoy notable backing in parts of the Western region.
The survey further found that 24 per cent of respondents favoured a more strategic approach, saying the community should negotiate conditional support with any political coalition before making a final decision.
This group argued that political backing should be tied to clear commitments and benefits for the community.
Meanwhile, nine per cent of respondents said the Abaluhya should remain politically independent for now and decide later, while six per cent indicated they were unsure which direction the community should take.
At the county level, Busia recorded the highest proportion of respondents favouring support for the Opposition, with 53 per cent expressing this preference.
In contrast, Vihiga County registered the strongest support for the ruling coalition, where 45 per cent said the community should back Kenya Kwanza in the next elections.
Bungoma County had the highest share of respondents advocating for political independence, with 12 per cent saying the community should wait before aligning with any coalition.
The opinion poll was conducted on December 29, 2025.
Interviews were conducted through Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews (CATI).
The relevant section of the public that was targeted in the poll (i.e. the universe) was persons who were voters, 18 years old and above at the time of the poll. The overall poll had a target survey sample size of 600 respondents.
The poll covered 5 counties (Vihiga, Busia, Kakamega, Bungoma and Trans Nzoia). To ensure the survey findings were representative of voters aged 18 and above in the ward, the sample was proportionately distributed across the 5 counties.
The margin of error was ±4.0% at 95 per cent degree of confidence.
