Written By Henry Kimoli ||
One Kenya Alliance (OKA) leaders are either in denial, determined to emerge as a formidable third force or want to force a run-off come August 2022.
Denial because early opinion polls have placed Azimio Raila Odinga and Hustler William Ruto ahead of Mudavadi, Kalonzo, and Wetangula combined.
And for good maths. Kalonzo has a solid 1 million Kamba votes banked. Mudavadi has the Maragoli vote of 700,000 behind him. Wetangula has 150,000 Bukusu votes.
These are the votes OKA starts with.
Raila alone has the Luo, Kisii, Kuria, the rest of Western Kenya, and the 300,000 strong Mijikenda votes.
DP Ruto has the Kalenjin nation drinking his Mursik straight from his guard. At his intervals. The Maasai, Somali, and other Cushite-speaking communities will vote for either Azimio. Or Hustler.
The GEMA vote can be the tsunami. Or the anti-climax.
Whoever gets 40 percent of the GEMA vote between Raila and Ruto becomes the 5th President.
Then OKA will be left clutching straws and complaining that they were rigged. This will be on 12th August 2022.
So why deploy political ignorance at high stakes and volatile games？
Kalonzo and Mudavadi are playing hard to get after Raila refused to make them his running mates.
Raila has shared a ticket twice with Kalonzo and once with Mudavadi. In both scenarios, he lost. He now wants them to be leaders of the Majority in Parliament or the Speaker of the National Assembly.
Reason？ He wants a GEMA running mate, the only ingredient that has been missing in his Presidential broth.
Make no mistake. Raila would rather abandon everyone than lose his final and realistic stab in the Presidency.
The Hustler has smelt the GEMA power coffee. He was in fact been served a generous portion between 2013 and 2017. He is big enough to nose political power, acquire and retain. He will stop at nothing to marry a GEMA bride.
In the meantime, Kalonzo and Co. will remain rooted at the foothills of Mount Kenya, hoping for a political miracle. It will not happen.
So which way OKA？ They have up to January 31st to put their house in order. Or build their own small fiefdoms.
Politics is steel hard in Kenya.
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