Written by Lisa Murimi
The Congolese army and M23 rebels are reinforcing positions across the volatile eastern provinces, raising fears of renewed conflict despite repeated U.S. and Qatari peace efforts that have so far failed to gain traction.
The escalation comes months after M23 rebels accused of receiving support from Rwanda captured two major cities earlier this year, marking the most serious threat to President Felix Tshisekedi’s government in two decades. The offensive displaced millions and stoked fears of a wider regional war.
Washington and Doha have attempted to broker peace, but analysts say mediators rushed agreements without establishing trust.
The rebels are demanding the release of 700 prisoners and a power-sharing deal in territories under their control. Kinshasa has refused to concede ground or free detainees, insisting on full state authority.
“Broken promises, fragile implementation and deep mistrust are holding back any progress,” said Kristof Titeca, a professor at the University of Antwerp.
Both sides have sent hundreds of fighters to strategic towns near Rwanda and Burundi. The United Nations and rights groups have documented widespread abuses, including summary killings, rape and torture, by both government troops and rebel forces since preliminary deals were signed in Washington and Doha.
The conflict is rooted in the aftermath of Rwanda’s 1994 genocide, when remnants of Hutu militias fled into Congo, forming the FDLR, which continues to prey on civilians.
The Tutsi-led M23 claims to defend Congo’s Tutsi minority, while Kinshasa accuses Rwanda of using the rebels as proxies to loot gold, coltan and other minerals vital to global tech industries.
The stakes are high: Congo holds some of the world’s richest mineral deposits, and former U.S. President Donald Trump has said American companies are ready to invest billions if peace is achieved.
But with 7.8 million displaced and M23 fielding an estimated 14,000 fighters, stability remains elusive.
Flashpoints are emerging in Uvira and Walikale, where control of tin and coltan mines could determine the balance of power. Foreign military contractors have also begun supporting Congolese forces.
Despite promises, peace agreements remain unimplemented. On September 3, U.S., Qatari, Congolese and Rwandan officials acknowledged delays but insisted the process is still alive. Yet on the ground, both armies continue to dig in.
