The value of global merchandise trade this year now casts a strong increase of 22.4 per cent compared with 2020.
This is according to UNCTAD’s Handbook of Statistics for 2021 which was published on Thursday.
According to the UN agency, the strong growth will push the value of world trade in goods about 15 per cent higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic hit.
Trade-in services, however, will still fall short of pre-pandemic levels despite the 13.6 per cent growth nowcast for 2021 after a deep contraction recorded in 2020.
The annual report presents the statistical landscape for 2020 through a wide variety of statistics relevant to international trade, investment, maritime transport and development. It also depicts developments in 2021 through data-led projections, known as nowcasts, for now, and the immediate future.
“Reliable and timely data are in high demand as COVID-19 puts unforeseen pressure on decision-makers, who are scrambling to get a handle on the pandemic-affected economic landscape,” said UNCTAD’s acting head of statistics, Anu Peltola. “These statistics are needed for evidence-based policy responses to the pandemic.”
The nowcasts incorporate the latest data available at the time of the finalization of the report. They don’t reflect the potential impacts of the new omicron variant since data are not yet available for December 2021.
The estimates will be revised as official statistics and other indicators for 2021 become available, with UNCTAD’s next trade nowcast bulletin set for release in January 2022.
According to the report, world merchandise trade recorded a decline of 7.4 per cent in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Global exports amounted to $17.6 trillion, a $1.4 trillion fall from the previous year. This was the biggest annual decline since 2009, when trade fell by 22 per cent.
The decline in global services trade value was much stronger, with a contraction of 20 per cent in 2020 compared with 2019. This was the biggest decline in services trade since the beginning of its recording. In comparison, the value of trade in services fell by 9.5 per cent in 2009 following the global financial crisis.
Global merchandise trade recovered fast, exceeding its pre-crisis level by the end of 2020. But UNCTAD nowcasts show that the pace of growth gradually slowed over the course of 2021.
For global services trade, the recovery path seen in the first six months of 2021 is nowcast to have continued strongly into the third quarter of 2021, with a 23 per cent increase from the low levels of the same period in 2020.
The pace of growth in services trade is nowcast to slow down in the fourth quarter of 2021, and the sector is yet to reach its pre-pandemic levels.
Among services, travel was most severely affected, shedding an immense 63 per cent in 2020 and strongly upsetting tourism-oriented economies. International transport sales – passengers and freight included – dropped by 20 per cent last year.
Exports of business, intellectual property, financial and insurance services showed more resilience, declining by 3 per cent. Meanwhile, trade-in telecommunications, computer and information services continued growing throughout the pandemic, except in Africa.
The year 2020 saw many abrupt changes in international trade and the economy unlike any seen before. The pandemic also weighed heavily on international maritime trade, disrupting operations and causing supply chain pressures. As a result, the volume of maritime trade slumped by 3.8 per cent in 2020.
Also, global foreign direct investment flows dropped by a dramatic 35 per cent in 2020 to almost 20 per cent below the levels recorded after the 2009 global financial crisis.
*This article was written by Ramadhan Kambi for Uzalendo News. Email: uzalendonews24@gmail.com to submit your story.
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