The death of Kenya’s long serving opposition leader Raila Odinga has altered Kenya’s political landscape, with 41% of Kenyans believing it will be more difficult for President William Ruto to secure his re-election in 2027, according to the latest TIFA poll released on December 23, 2025.
The survey reveals a divided electorate grappling with the implications of Raila’s absence from the political space.
While a large percentage believes that Raila’s absence would complicate Ruto’s second term, 30% of electorates believe it will make re-election easier for president Ruto while 18% see no difference in Ruto’s prospects, while 10% remain undecided about the same.
As per the findings, Raila’s absence is perceived more as a complicating factor than a political advantage for President Ruto.
In Addition, the poll suggests that voters remain divided on outcomes, with the president’s performance still seen as highly contingent on his administration’s delivery rather than the opposition’s configuration.
The Kenyas political party landscape has undergone a significant transformation since the last general election.
The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) remains the most popular political party in Kenya at 20%, followed by the the Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 16%. However, both parties have experienced substantial declines in support since August 2022, when ODM commanded 32% and UDA enjoyed 38%.
According to this survey, this represents a doubling of the undecided electorates and suggests that no party currently commands a stable base, leaving voter loyalty highly slippery.
Uhuru’s Jubilee Party stands at 11%, while smaller parties, including Wiper and DCP commands a 6%. Wetangula’s Ford-Kenya stands at 1% and Wamalwa’s DAP-Kenya 1%.
Only 30% of Kenyans expect the ODM party to remain in the Boad-based coalition government as the poll reveals that Kenyans expect ODM to return to opposition by exiting the current Broad-Based Government, with 50% expecting this move ahead of the 2027 General Elections.
The TIFA Research shows an increasingly undecided electorates, major parties losing their ground, and disagreement over opposition leadership. The road to 2027 remains unclear for all political actors as Kenyans expect ODM to step back into opposition, even as they disagree fundamentally on who should lead that charge in the post-Raila era.
Who needs who as 2027 comes closer or will the situation remain constant?
