Has Raila Odinga found his Waterloo in Edwin Sifuna, or has the rookie Nairobi Senator signed his own political death sentence?
Sifuna, a scion of the fiery Moi tormentor Lawrence Sifuna, has now dared to tread where only eagles soar, by openly opposing Raila’s deal with President Ruto.
The big question: what next for Sifuna?
Raila may feign democracy, but his veins pump pure political blood. And he looks dead serious about this duel. Baba will almost certainly attempt to bury Sifuna politically by identifying a suitable replacement with similar credentials. Specifically, Raila could front another Bukusu lawyer for the Nairobi Senate seat, a position he holds sway over thanks to his 15 years as Lang’ata MP.
He may also empower Babu Owino further, making him Raila’s political go-to man in Nairobi, while shipping Sifuna back to his native Bungoma. But Bungoma is already politically crowded; Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, Tim Wanyonyi, Dr. Mukhisa Kituyi, and Eugene Wamalwa dominate the field. If Sifuna loses Baba’s support, he risks being cast among these “dogs of war” and consigned to political oblivion.
But Sifuna is not without options. He could sign pacts with Rigathi Gachagua, Kalonzo Musyoka, or even the Tawe Movement, all with the aim of slicing Raila’s influence.
Since Kijana Wamalwa’s death, Raila has assimilated the Luhya vote, becoming the undisputed king of Mululu after neutralising Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi. With ODM governors in both Kakamega and Vihiga, Raila still rules the Western block.
But Sifuna, sensing political blood in the broad-based government, has positioned himself as Raila’s only logical challenger in Western Kenya.
He is betting that those who want President Ruto out in 2027 will make good on their threats. He has placed himself in the political shop window as part of the next generation of Kenya’s political ‘owners’.
Sifuna also knows Raila’s relationship with the Bukusu community has always been fraught. After Jaramogi’s death in 1996, Kijana Wamalwa was expected to take over Ford Kenya, but Raila split the party, forming NDP after a violent fallout at the infamous Thika elections. That historical wound still fuels Bukusu hostility toward Raila.
Sifuna, young and relatively unburdened, can afford to jump ship. Raila, in the fourth quarter of his political relevance, cannot abandon ODM, the party through which he has cut four major handshakes:
- President Moi (1998–2002, NDP)
- President Kibaki (2002–2005, LDP)
- Kibaki (2007–2013, ODM)
- President Uhuru (2018–2022, ODM)
- President Ruto (2022 – Current)
In Kenya, handshakes are like human trafficking. Highly secretive, highly rewarding. Raila has repeatedly offered his supporters to sitting presidents.
But Sifuna refuses to be cowed. He has chosen to be provocative, and in doing so, has placed himself on a dangerous yet potentially historic path.
Written by Henry Kimoli
