When South Korean President Lee Jae Myung meets U.S. President Donald Trump next week for their first summit, the future of the alliance will be tested by disputes over defense costs, the role of U.S. troops, and how to counter China, officials and analysts say.
At the center of the talks is Washington’s push for Seoul to pay more for the 28,500 American troops stationed in South Korea, a Cold War legacy of the 1950–53 Korean War. A U.S. official said “burden sharing” would be a top agenda item, with Trump expected to demand a substantial increase in South Korea’s annual contribution, which currently exceeds $1 billion.
Victor Cha of the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that South Korea also funded the construction of Camp Humphreys, the largest U.S. base overseas, but said Trump has previously floated figures as high as $5–10 billion. “He wants allies spending closer to 5% of GDP; South Korea is at about 3.5%,” Cha said.
The Pentagon has quietly discussed scaling down troop levels if no deal is reached, the U.S. official added. Some defense planners, however, are urging a strategic shift to highlight the alliance’s role in countering China. That could complicate matters for Lee, who has pledged support for the U.S. alliance but insists on a “balanced approach” between Washington and Beijing.
U.S. Forces Korea commander General Xavier Brunson recently said South Korea’s involvement in any Taiwan conflict was not guaranteed but acknowledged U.S. troops there could be drawn into wider regional crises.
Seoul’s foreign ministry stressed that all USFK operations are coordinated with the South Korean government, but analysts warn that branding the mission as “anti-China” risks economic retaliation similar to Beijing’s response to Seoul’s 2017 deployment of the U.S. THAAD missile defense system.
On North Korea, Trump and Lee appear more aligned. Both have expressed willingness to engage Kim Jong Un despite Pyongyang’s deepening ties with Russia and rejection of denuclearization talks. Lee told Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun that he hopes to lay the groundwork for dismantling North Korea’s nuclear program through diplomacy and close coordination with Washington.
Still, Seoul’s debate over nuclear capabilities could surface at the summit. Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said South Korea may seek U.S. approval to reprocess or enrich nuclear materials, though he insisted this would serve only industrial or environmental purposes.
Arms control experts have dismissed that rationale, warning it could undermine nonproliferation agreements and fuel calls for South Korea to pursue its own nuclear arsenal.
Analysts expect the summit to reaffirm the alliance while leaving unresolved the hardest questions: how much Seoul will pay to keep U.S. troops on the peninsula, and whether Washington will press it to take a more active role in confronting China.
Written By Rodney Mbua
