The United Nations has warned that the El Niño climate phenomenon, which previously contributed to record-breaking global temperatures, could return as early as mid-2026, raising concerns over intensified heat and more extreme weather patterns worldwide.

In a statement on Friday, UN climate and weather agencies said conditions for El Niño are likely to emerge between May and July, with early signals pointing to the possibility of a strong event developing.

On Friday, AFP reported that the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stating preliminary modelling indicates a potentially significant resurgence of the phenomenon, although forecasting certainty typically improves after April.

“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification,” said WMO climate forecasting chief Wilfran Moufouma Okia.

“Models indicate the phenomenon may be strong, but forecast confidence generally increases after April,” he added.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterised by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

It also disrupts global wind patterns, atmospheric pressure systems and rainfall distribution, often triggering widespread weather anomalies.

The climate system typically alternates between El Niño and La Niña phases, with neutral conditions occurring in between.

Previous El Niño events played a significant role in 2023 becoming the second hottest year on record, while 2024 has already registered unprecedented global temperature highs.

The WMO said its latest seasonal climate update shows rapid warming across the equatorial Pacific, signalling conditions consistent with a possible return of El Niño as early as May to July.

It added that forecasts also point to a “near-global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” over the coming three months.

The Geneva-based agency stressed that there is no evidence climate change is increasing the frequency or intensity of El Niño events.

“However, it can amplify the impacts because warmer oceans and atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall,” it said.

El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months. – April 24, 2026