A new advisory from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warns that severe dry conditions are expected to persist across Kenya and the broader East African region, raising alarms over potential food shortages and water scarcity.
The forecast, published Thursday, notes that below-average rainfall over the past two months has led to significant dryness in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia. “Over the past week, little to light rainfall was observed across many parts of East Africa,” NOAA stated, projecting that minimal precipitation will continue in western Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Uganda in the coming week.
This prolonged dry spell threatens to disrupt the crucial “short rains” season of November, potentially triggering a cascade of dry-weather-related calamities. The warning underscores a stark climatic divide, as NOAA simultaneously predicts heavy, above-average rains for southern African nations, including South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
The NOAA advisory aligns with the latest forecast from the Kenya Meteorological Department, which predicts continued sunny and dry conditions for over 32 counties, including Nairobi, Mombasa, and much of the Rift Valley. While light rains are expected in parts of the Lake Victoria basin and the Southeastern lowlands, the overall picture remains one of significant moisture deficit.
The persistent drought conditions pose a severe threat to agricultural output and water resources, highlighting the increasing volatility of regional weather patterns and the urgent need for coordinated preparedness and response measures.
By James Kisoo
