Dutch citizens went to the polls on Wednesday in a closely watched national election seen as a major test of whether Europe’s populist wave, driven by anti-immigration sentiment and nationalist rhetoric, is gaining or losing strength.
The vote pits far-right leader Geert Wilders, one of Europe’s longest-serving populists and an outspoken critic of Islam, against a cluster of centrist rivals seeking to pull the Netherlands back toward the political middle.
The outcome could influence the direction of right-wing politics across Europe, where nationalist parties are also leading polls in Britain, France, and Germany.
Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV), which topped the 2023 elections and briefly led a fragile all-conservative coalition, entered Wednesday’s vote narrowly ahead in opinion polls.
However, analysts say his chances of forming a government remain slim. All four centrist parties, including the centre-right VVD and the Christian Democrats (CDA), have ruled out joining a coalition with the PVV, unless Wilders wins by an unexpectedly large margin.
Polling stations opened as early as 6:30 a.m. (0530 GMT) and will close at 9 p.m., when the first exit polls, traditionally reliable indicators of the outcome, are due to be released.
Nearly half of Dutch voters were still undecided in the days leading up to the vote, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the result.
Wilders’ campaign has focused on slashing immigration and cutting foreign aid to fund domestic programs such as energy and healthcare.
He has pledged to deny all asylum requests, in defiance of EU law, and to send male Ukrainian refugees back to Ukraine.
Despite facing death threats and living under constant security protection, Wilders continues to attract loyal support in working-class towns like Volendam, where many residents say they feel ignored by mainstream politicians.
“We need to be able to take care of ourselves, and that’s why I’m voting for PVV, our own people first,” said Jaap Schilder, a 40-year-old fish shop owner and local politician in Volendam.
But his support appears to be waning. Analysts say Wilders’ credibility was damaged by infighting during his last coalition, which collapsed in June when he pulled out over resistance to his hardline immigration agenda. His open admiration for U.S. President Donald Trump has also unsettled some voters.
“I wouldn’t sleep well at night,” said Greta Blakborn, a pensioner active in the Labour-Green Left party, when asked about the prospect of a Wilders-led government.
The Christian Democrats, led by newcomer Henri Bontenbal, have gained ground by promising stability and a focus on traditional values, while the centrist D66, under Rob Jetten, has attracted support with pledges to tackle the housing crisis and invest in education.
Regardless of who wins, tough coalition talks are expected. Forming a stable government in the Netherlands typically takes weeks or even months, and with parliament likely split among several closely matched parties, another prolonged period of negotiation looms.
As Professor Henk van der Kolk of the University of Amsterdam put it: “Even if Wilders gets the most votes and the most seats in parliament, he will probably not get into the coalition.”
The Dutch election thus stands as both a barometer of Europe’s populist endurance and a test of whether the political center can still hold.
Source: Reuters
Written By Rodney Mbua
