Ruto Caught in a Bind as Raila Plans a Massive protest

If Raila follows through on his threat to launch a major counter-offensive against Ruto's government, there is a risk of a repeat of the 2017 standoff.

Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) Vice-Chairperson Juliana Cherera addresses a news conference where she disowns the presidential elections results in Nairobi, Kenya August 15, 2022. REUTERS/John Muchucha

President William Ruto may find himself in a pickle after opposition leader Raila Odinga predicted widespread protests.

If Raila follows through on his threat to launch a major counter-offensive against Ruto’s government, there is a risk of a repeat of the 2017 standoff.

The ongoing process to remove the four IEBC commissioners who disavowed the presidential election results on August 9th could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Raila has vehemently opposed the move, calling it unjustifiable and the establishment of authoritarian rule in a democratic state.

“If the injustice inflicted on the four commissioners continues as currently conceived, it will mark the beginning of a massive pushback against Ruto and those who think like him,” Raila said.

Raila has insisted that Azimio would go to any length to prevent the removal of the four commissioners, including organizing a mass protest.

The President has vowed to punish the commissioners—Juliana Cherera, Justus Chang’aya, Irene Masit, and Wanderi Kamau—for attempting to subvert popular will.

Ruto has stated that he will not agree to another handshake and that he will require a strong opposition to keep his government in check.

However, Raila appears to be planning a strategy to counter Ruto in the months following Ruto’s 100 days in office.

Raila’s meeting with Azimio elected governors and their deputies in Naivasha on Friday resolved to build momentum for a large-scale opposition to Ruto’s policies.

“We will reflect and consult with Kenyans on the necessary resistance and struggle to protect our democracy,” the meeting decided.

Azimio warned in resolutions read by Kisumu governor Anyang’ Nyong’o that they will not back down in the face of what they called the emergence of authoritarianism.

“We will not tolerate the re-establishment of authoritarian rule or violations of human rights,” Azimio declared.