Sonko Gardens: Sonko’s new city beautification plan buries Kidero’s Obama grass “ghost”

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February 3, 2019

By Henry Kimoli

The jury is still out there on the performance of Mike Mbuvi Sonko, the second Governor of County number 47.
Sonko, a veteran of city politics owing to his stint as Makadara MP in the sprawling Eastlands surburb and as the first Nairobi Senator; has baffled both friend and foe in his bid to shore his political prowess.
Other than veteran former Starehe MP Maina Kamanda, Sonko is staking his claim as the prime mover in the volatile Nairobi politics, Kenya”s seat of power.

As the Governor of the City of Nairobi, he finds a reserved seat in all local and international meetings hosted in Nairobi. As per protocol, he is mandated to welcome key guests including President Uhuru Kenyatta to deliver key note speech. The Governor, who relishes confrontation whenever he feels his interests are threatened has now landed an invitation to attend the United Nations Council.

And so how has he fared in his bid to beautify the city?
Sonko has created gardens along Uhuru Highway, Jogoo Road, Mombasa Road to mention but four. He has also created botanical gardens in various places within the city.

A Nairobi County Government boozer waters flowers and grass along Uhuru Highway, opposite Parliament on 3rd February 2019- *Photo Credit, Uzalendo News*

The most ambitious of all is the introduction of aerial sprinklers to water grass along Uhuru Highway. The pipes are linked to a water source, believed to be an underground water tank
Once operational, these will replace the Nairobi County Government trucks which water the Sonko Gardens every evening and sundays.

The elevated irrigation pipes installed by the Sonko Government, opposite Nyayo Stadium, adjacent to the former Nakumatt lifestyle. Sonko has effected a beautification model that is slowly changing the face of the city.
3rd February 2019- *Photo Credit, Uzalendo News*

His predecessor came up with the Obama grass. It withered. Then he introduced the Pope grass, which in the long run became a non starter. Will Sonko Gardens be the first major coup against the Kidero regime? Only time will tell.
Pictures: By Uzalendo team.

Kajiado county set to benefit from new developments

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Dan Ojumah

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February 3, 2019

President Kenyatta challenged Members of Parliament to use the Constituency Development Fund to build more schools.
“I will build the roads, provide electricity water, MPs should build enough schools,” said the President.

He announced that the Government is funding the construction of a sewerage system in Kiserian town.
The President also announced that the Government will fund the construction of tarmac roads within all parts of the town.
Deputy President Ruto said Kenyans should focus on development and rally behind the President in moving Kenya towards progress.

“We do not want stories, incitement and the politics of division and tribalism. The President has united all Kenyans so that we can focus on development,” said the Deputy President.

The DP said Technical colleges have been built in every Constituency in Kajiado and called on the youth to enrol to learn technical skills to drive the country’s Big Four Agenda.

Madaraka Day celebrations to be held in Kajiado County.

By

Dan Ojumah

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February 3, 2019

President Uhuru Kenyatta today announced that this year’s Madaraka Day celebrations will be held in Kajiado County.

He spoke when he arrived back into Kenya from Arusha, Tanzania, where he attended the 20th Heads of State Summit of the East African Community.

The President’s announcement is in line with a recent trend in which celebrations to mark some national holidays are held in the Counties, a departure from the past when all such events were held in Nairobi.

The President who was accompanied by Deputy President William Ruto and Burundi Vice President Gaston Sindimwo travelled from Namanga by road, making close to a dozen stopovers to address the public. Kajiado Governor Joseph Ole Lenku hosted the leaders for lunch at Oletepes Picnic Site in Kiserian.

In his speeches during the stopovers, the President spoke on regional integration saying that governments in the East African Community are committed to ensure the region becomes one entity without restrictions of internal boundaries.

“We will continue strengthening our ties (EAC countries) until the day we unite and our citizens become one and we no longer have border posts,” said the President when he spoke at the Namanga One-Stop Border Post.

The President encouraged the border communities to live in peace and to take advantage of the various EAC treaties and facilities to engage in cross border trade.

He said border communities must ensure they live in harmony with each other because progress cannot be achieved in the absence of peace adding that the Government has an obligation to ensure that citizens enjoy better services.

“We want to live in a democratic society where the government serves the people and not the other way round,” President Kenyatta said.

The Head of State said citizens should take a more active role in demanding for their rights from Government officers as their contribution to the fight against corruption and impunity.

Kenya’s public debt is rising to dangerous levels

By

Dan Ojumah

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February 1, 2019

Odongo Kodongo, University of the Witwatersrand

Kenya is weighed down by swelling public debt and faces the possibility of a debt crisis (where the government can’t repay what it owes).

Kenya’s current public debt stands at approximately 4.884 trillion Kenyan shillings (USD$49 billion) or 56.4% of the country’s gross domestic product.. This is up from 42.8% in 2008. In other words, the country owes more than half the value of its economic output (GDP).

The International Monetary Fund recommends that ratios of public debt to GDP should not be higher than 40% for developing countries.

To be fair, this level of debt is comparable to that of other developing economies. For example, South Africa’s ratio of public debt to GDP was 53.1% in 2017 (2008: 27.8%). Nigeria’s was 21.3% in 2017 (2008: 7.3%). Brazil, India and China all have ratios over 40%. However, the economies of these countries are several times larger than Kenya’s.

Policy analysts are worried about the country’s public debt compared with its national income. Kenya has a population of 51 million, implying that every Kenyan owes about USD$962 – and produces USD$1169 a year. In comparison, each South African owes about USD$1434 and produces USD$12,295.

Unsustainable debt levels can be harmful. They can “crowd out” development and social programmes because huge portions of government revenue are taken away from essential services and used instead to service debt. In the worst case scenario, Kenya might be forced to cede control of its strategic national assets to foreign creditors. This has happened in some countries such as Sri Lanka which had to hand over a strategic port to China.

Understanding Kenya’s external debt

The concern is not just about the amount of debt relative to national income, but where the debt comes from. The National Treasury reports that as at March 2018, more than half (USD$24.9 billion) of Kenya’s total public debt came from outside the country, up from USD$21.6 billion a year before.

External debt is not necessarily harmful for an economy. Studies show that external debt inflows (if synchronised with business cycles) can stabilise the economy and boost economic growth. However, interest and principal repayments on external debt are made in foreign currency. This depletes a country’s foreign exchange reserves and may devalue the domestic currency.

In the short term, a weak domestic currency makes a country’s exports more competitive. That’s good. But a weak currency can lead to high inflation rates in the long term because it costs the country more to import what it needs for production and consumption.

This inflationary effect is bad for a country like Kenya, which imports more goods and services than it exports. The inflationary pressure is fuelled by low domestic production. Kenya’s domestic production base has shrunk in recent years and manufacturing has dipped from 12.8% of the GDP in 2007 to a paltry 8.4% in 2017 owing to bad economic policies.

Kenya’s increasing appetite for international privately held debt is worrying. Debt is said to be privately held if the lenders are non-governmental institutions and individuals.

The country has recently issued two debt instruments (bonds), first in 2014, and then in 2018. The bonds were made available on the international debt market. In each case, Kenya raised (borrowed) approximately USD$2 billion.

According to the Treasury, the money was to be

applied towards the government’s development initiatives and liability management.

This means that proceeds from debt were not earmarked for specific capital projects and that some of it were to be spent on servicing existing debts. Common sense should tell us that this is financially unsound.

Borrowed funds should be put to productive use. Investing them in improving public infrastructure would lower the cost of doing business and make a country an attractive investment destination. This in turn would bolster economic output, and therefore its ability to service the debt and, in the long run, lessen the need for additional debt.

The overall effect would be to improve the country’s credit rating, which in turn would make it a safer bet should it seek more debt in future.

But if a country uses the money it has borrowed to repay another debt, no new wealth is created, and it might struggle to repay debt in future. This is likely to cause its credit rating to fall. Lenders and investors would then demand a higher interest rate to compensate for the risk that they will lose their money. This makes it costlier to repay the new debt.

High cost of borrowing

Kenya’s experience with its two international Eurobond loans, the latest one issued in two equal tranches – one repayable after 10 years, and the other after 30 years – showed that the country is expected to pay more for the second issuance compared to the first. This is because the risk of lenders losing their money was higher for the second issuance.

Aside from the individual risk characteristics of particular countries, research shows that countries on the African continent borrowing on the international markets routinely pay an “Africa premium” estimated at about 2.9 percentage points on their sovereign debt. Thus, by resorting to the international debt market, Kenyans are paying dearly.

Similar to Eurobonds, bilateral debt agreements are also believed to cost Kenya a lot more than their explicit interest charge. Take the case of China, for example. China is Kenya’s largest creditor, holding about 72% of the country’s bilateral debt as of March 2017. Studies show that Kenya’s Chinese debt poses a threat because the loan agreements are not transparent, projects are not well prioritised, accounting procedures are weak and it’s not clear what projects are costing.

On top of this, most Chinese loans are conditional on Kenya’s acceptance of Chinese contractors. This limits the loans’ developmental impact through potential technology transfers which could improve the country’s productive capabilities and in turn its future ability to comfortably absorb the debt burden.

What Kenya needs to do about its debt

To reduce its burgeoning public debt burden, Kenya must improve its production capabilities in the long term. This can be achieved in several ways.

Firstly, it must increase its investment in human capital to promote entrepreneurial activity. Thus, the current focus on vocational and technical training must be sustained. Secondly, there must be shift from exporting raw materials to value addition and manufacturing. And lastly, attention should be directed to developing local enterprise especially those that produce import substitutes. In the agricultural sector, sugar and rice are two examples.

In the short term, measures must be put in place to reduce government spending and to enhance revenue collection.

Odongo Kodongo, Associate professor, Finance, University of the Witwatersrand

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Sudan impasse can end if Bashir sets aside his pride and agrees to mediation

By

Dan Ojumah

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February 1, 2019

Luka Kuol, Africa Center for Strategic Studies

Sudan has been gripped by popular protests since December, representing the most sustained challenge to President Omar al-Bashir’s 30 years in power. The protests were sparked by a tripling in bread prices and an inflation rate of 65% – and rising.

Sudan is one of the few African countries in which citizens pioneered post-independence popular uprisings that forced the ruling military regimes to step down. This happened in 1964 and in 1985. As a result popular uprisings are viewed as a way of redefining the peoples’ social contract with the state.

The recent uprising was triggered by a government decision to lift subsidies on essential commodities, most significantly bread. More broadly, it’s a manifestation of the structural economic, political, and social fragility of the state of Sudan.

Unlike previous uprisings, these protests have been engineered by young people as well as middle-class professionals who are well informed. They are also well connected and equipped with enabling technology and social media that the regime is ill-positioned to contain.

There is no doubt the uprising has weakened the authority of Bashir and political Islam in Sudan. It’s likely to persist. Meanwhile, elements of the government are determined to repress the protests until the movement is worn out.

In my view Sudan is at a crossroads. Some observers see Bashir as having no option but to fight back at any cost. The protesters, on the other hand, are determined to see regime change. If the confrontation continues, Sudan is destined for a bloody boiling point and chaos that may deteriorate into a scenario similar to that of Syria or Libya.

The situation in the country is already incredibly fragile given that Sudan is arguably one of the worst performing states in the world. The current climate marks a low point in the country’s tumultuous history which included a political Islam programme being adopted by the National Congress Party in governing Sudan after gaining power through a coup d’état in 1989. This in turn resulted in separation from South Sudan.

There are possible options to end the impasse. But the good ones would require Bashir to accept mediation, and to stand down, or indicate that he won’t stand for reelection in 2020. There’s also, however, the possibility that he digs in his heels and brutally suppresses the uprising.

Bashir’s fragile base

The uprising seems to gain more strength and re-energise itself the more the government uses violence to suppress it.

It’s significant that 22 political parties, including Islamist political parties, have withdrawn from the national dialogue initiated by Bashir. Their January 1 call for him to step down and form a sovereign council and a transitional government is a political blow to the president’s standing.

Many observers also believe that the army has shifted from its absolute allegiance to Bashir to a neutral position and are even siding in some instances with the protesters. The National Intelligence and Security Service, a loyal and integral part of Bashir’s ruling party, has started blaming the government for its mismanagement of the economic crisis. This has further weakened the control of Bashir over the affairs of the government.

Even the special military force, called “The Rapid Support Force”, that was formed to protect Bashir and his regime has cut a lower profile during this uprising.

With the erosion of Bashir’s political base, the National Congress Party is divided and he retains only a few loyal supporters from his party. Besides the division within the party, there is also friction among the regime’s supporters. The Sudanese Muslim Scholars Association, a body of state sponsored clerics that’s perceived as conservative and loyal to Bashir, has, in an unprecedented move, criticised the government for the economic crisis. It has called for the responsible officials to be held accountable.

Likely paths forward

One option would be for Bashir to voluntarily resign and hand over power to the national army along with a technocratic government to oversee the transition to constitutional democratic governance. Provided that he can find a host country to ensure his safety and protection from arrest warrants by the International Criminal Court, he may choose to leave the country as did the former Tunisian president, Zine el Abidine Ben Ali.

If he was afforded some protection he could decide to stay in the country, as did the former Sudanese president, Ibrahim Abboud, in 1964 and former Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak. Such a move would likely quell the protests and spare the country the risk of more widespread violence.

But this option is unlikely as the national army may be too politicised. Moreover, some protesters may not accept Bashir avoiding accountability.

The second option is for Bashir to undertake that he won’t stand in general elections in 2020. This would allow the formation of an inclusive government of national unity to oversee the transition to a constitutional democracy.

Under this scenario, Bashir would publicly apologise for the atrocities committed under his rule and bring charges against those responsible for the killing of protesters. As part of the transition process, he would commit to a national dialogue that would help create a conducive political environment for power-sharing. This would also ensure the participation of moderate Islamist members, as has been the case in the Tunisian transitional process.

This option is likely to be entertained by Bashir and accepted by the protesters if a trusted body facilitates it.

But some protesters may not agree with any option other than Bashir stepping down.

The third option is for Bashir to declare a state of emergency and to try and violently suppress the uprising. This would result in more bloodshed and may trigger a violent response from protesters. Under this scenario, Sudan could descend into a protracted and fragmented conflict that could result in massive displacement and immense human suffering.

Without mediation – both internal and external – Bashir’s instinct and pride may predispose him to this route.

Luka Kuol, Professor of Practice for Security Studies , Africa Center for Strategic Studies

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

President Kenyatta: We want to break the barriers preventing the people of the region from prospering

By

Dan Ojumah

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January 31, 2019

President Uhuru Kenyatta this evening urged Kenyans to remain united and avoid divisive politics.

The President said Kenyans will enjoy prosperity when they remain united and when they are able to live or work in any part of the country.

The Head of State, who was on his way to Arusha, Tanzania, for the East African Community Heads of State Summit, spoke at Kitengela and Isinya, where he called on Kenyans to focus on development, saying that politics alone cannot develop the nation.

“A country cannot be developed by politics alone but by hard work,” said the President who was accompanied by Deputy President William Ruto.

The President said elected leaders must use funds under their control prudently for the benefit of Kenyans instead of using it for selfish interests.

He said elections come after every five years and therefore politics should not cause suffering for innocent Kenyans.

“When we plant hatred we will continue to suffer,” said the President at Isinya shopping centre.

He said he was leading by example in fostering harmony and unity by working twith former Prime Minister Raila Odinga through the building bridges initiative.

“We need to decide as Kenyans that we will live together peacefully and work together to develop our nation as well as the region. Politics alone cannot feed us, we will be fed by our hardwork,” said the President

The President commended the residents of Kitengela for living in peace and unity despite the cosmopolitan nature of the area.

President Kenyatta said he was taking a message of unity and integration to the EAC Summit. The EAC region has been implementing policies to integrate the region to ease movement of goods and people for work and investment.

He said the summit is expected to address issues related to skewed business opportunities to ensure an equal platform for all.

“My agenda in Arusha is to ensure our nations are united for the purpose of doing business together. We want to break the barriers preventing the people of the region from prospering,” said President Kenyatta.

At the same time, the President directed Cabinet Secretaries to work harder to serve Kenyans.

He said Cabinet Secretaries must engage with Kenyans at the grassroots in order to better serve the needs of citizens.

“Cabinet secretaries should go to the grassroots to identify projects that can help transform the lives of people,” said the President.

The President cautioned Cabinet Secretaries who fail to serve the public as required, saying that those who cannot meet the requirements of their jobs are free to exit and pave way for other qualified Kenyans.

“During today’s Cabinet meeting I reminded our Cabinet Secretaries that there are many young Kenyans who are willing and ready to work if they felt they are not up to task. Those who’ve chosen to keep politicking instead of serving the people should be ready to give way,” the President said.

He said his administration is keen on delivering the promises made during the last general elections.

On his part, the Deputy President supported the President’s call for Kenyans to disengage from constant politics and focus on development.

The DP urged Kenyans and all leaders to rally behind the President in tackling the problems facing the country including corruption.

President Uhuru Kenyatta chairs his first Cabinet meeting this year

By

Dan Ojumah

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January 31, 2019

President Uhuru Kenyatta today at State House, Nairobi, chaired the first Cabinet meeting this year which approved the establishment of a Counter-Improvised Explosive Device Centre (C-IED Centre) at Embakasi Garrison in Nairobi.

The Cabinet meeting discussed and approved an agreement where Germany has offered to donate 1.8 million Euros for the construction of the C-IED Centre.

The C-IED Centre, which will be a constituent college of the International Peace Support Training Centre, will equip the Kenya Defence Forces personnel with the knowledge and technology to robustly detect and safely disarm IEDs.

The C-IED Centre is deemed useful especially during the period that the KDF will remain in Somalia where IEDs are often used by the Al-Shabaab militia.

The Cabinet also discussed and approved the hosting of the 23rd session of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)/World Health Organization (WHO) Coordinating Committee meeting for Africa in Nairobi to be held from 2nd to 6th September.

The FAO/WHO Coordinating Committee meeting for Africa is important in boosting Kenya’s Big 4 Agenda especially the food security and nutrition pillar

Hosting the meeting will particularly provide a platform for the advancement of Kenya’s influence regionally and globally on food safety standards as well as an opportunity for Kenya’s food industry players to showcase their products

Further, the meeting will contribute to the promotion of Kenya’s tourism sector and strengthen the country’s position as a preferred tourist destination on the continent.

President Kenyatta bids farewell to the United States and Ethiopian envoys

By

Dan Ojumah

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January 31, 2019

President Uhuru Kenyatta today at State House, Nairobi, separately bid farewell to outgoing US Ambassador Robert Godec and Ethiopian Ambassador Dina Mufti Sid.
Addressing the envoys separately, President Kenyatta commended them for strengthening relations between Kenya and their respective countries during their tour of duty

Amb. Godec applauded President Kenyatta’s leadership, saying it has moved the country to a higher level in social and economic development. The envoy is leaving Kenya after six-and-a-half years tour of duty.

During Ambassador Godec’s tenure, Kenya and the US witnessed expanded relations across all sectors of cooperation including health, food security and transport key among them being the launch of direct flights between Nairobi and New York

Outgoing Ethiopian Ambassador Dina Mufti thanked President Kenyatta and the people of Kenya for their cooperation that made his stay in the country fruitful.

Deputy President William Ruto, Head of Public Service Joseph Kinyua and Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Amb. Monica Juma attended the farewell meetings.

Lessons from Nigeria on how public engagement can curb corruption

By

Dan Ojumah

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January 30, 2019

Tolu Olarewaju, Staffordshire University

Government corruption is a global challenge and a major obstacle to economic and social development. It compromises the delivery of valuable projects, distorts government and makes it impossible to transfer resources to citizen. This not only hinders investment and growth, it exacerbates social vices.

Our recent research looked at how the involvement of people monitoring the implementation of government projects in their community can improve service delivery and reduce corruption.

This approach is applicable to a host of developing countries. But our case study focused on Nigeria. Large portions of its population live in poverty largely due to the twin woes of government corruption and bad leadership.

Nigeria’s Budget Office of the Federation oversees budgeting and public expenditure functions across the country. But there’s a huge amount of secrecy around the budgeting process at every level of the Nigerian government. This secrecy can be used to serve the interests of corrupt government officials who don’t have to account for their actions with the amount of scrutiny that private business usually demands, but control public resources with far reaching consequences.

Our study shows that tracking government budgeted projects can ensure service delivery and reduce corruption. But to be effective, there must be transparency, community engagement, political party neutrality, and offline and online participation. This should include the use of information and communications technology, and social media.

Monitoring public projects

We gathered data by engaging with two NGOs that were set up to promote transparency around Nigeria’s budgeting process. These were BudgIT and Tracka.

BudgIT is Nigeria’s premier data journalism platform. It pioneered social advocacy by using an array of information and communication technology tools to simplify public spending for citizens. The result is higher standards of transparency and accountability in the government.

Tracka, BudgIT’s brainchild emerged in 2014 as a specialised tool to monitor public projects and give feedback. This includes updates on the status of projects for citizens and the government. Tracka engages active citizens who track the implementation of government projects in their communities to ensure service delivery.

Currently, however, the tool only tracks specific government capital projects called “Zonal Intervention Projects”. The details of these projects have only recently been made available to the Nigerian public thanks to the Nigeria Freedom of Information Act.

Open government budgets help remove secrecy by ensuring that all aspects of the budget are published as open data and citizens have access to.

Open government data can identify budget errors and discrepancies. It can also result in relevant feedback to the government and anti-corruption agencies. For instance, citizens can suggest beneficial programmes for their neighbourhoods.

Between May 2017 and June 2018, Tracka reached over 450,000 citizens through 246 town hall meetings across 20 states in Nigeria to encourage them to take ownership of government projects within their communities. Citizens were asked to find out about government budgeted projects within their communities and:

Visit project sites and take pictures to share via social media platforms including Twitter and Facebook.
Engage their elected representatives via letters, emails or tweets.
Engage the ministry or agency in charge of the projects via letters, emails or tweets; and
Report project and monitor progress update.

1,275 ZIP projects were tracked. Of these, 482 had been completed, 210 projects were ongoing, 367 projects had not been started, 189 had unspecified locations (meaning they couldn’t be tracked), while 27 have been abandoned.

The faces of corruption

Our research found that corruption mainly happened in four ways.

The first involved project implementation. Sometimes projects were simply not executed, even though funds had been disbursed. And then some projects were implemented but didn’t add value to the community.

The second was under-delivery and abandonment of projects. Large sums of money were approved for projects, but the completed projects didn’t reflect the value of the money disbursed.

The third was due to vaguely specified projects allowing for budget inflation. Because adequate details weren’t provided, the budget was open to various forms of interpretation. In addition, our research found that in the case of multiple items of the same kind, the unit costs and duration of use for the budgeted items were not given. This allowed the item to be budgeted for several times.

Finally, elected representatives embarked on so-called “empowerment” projects through which goods were distributed to party loyalists. Members of the community who didn’t belong to the political party of the representatives were excluded.

Also, on several occasions, legislators branded budgeted items as personal donations to their constituents. This gave the false impression that they were using personal funds to provide these budgeted items.

This doesn’t mean that corruption can’t happen within the government budget via other means. Other researchers have found that successive governments have become very skilled in using the government budget to plunder the Nigerian state through various means. This has included inflating figures, favouritism, nepotism and inefficiency in awarding contracts, rent-seeking, looting and the diversion of public funds.

What can be done?

Every year the Federal Government of Nigeria allocates some funds for special intervention projects across six zones in the country. Within the past decade, about N100 billion has been allocated yearly. These special interventions – termed “Zonal Intervention Projects” – have been mired in controversy with accusations of graft and a lack of transparency.

Opening up the budgets of the Zonal Intervention Projects has meant that corruption has been uncovered because people could, for the first time, monitor projects. They could then also engage with the relevant authorities to ensure completion.

In this way service delivery was enhanced and corruption exposed.

Crucially, a key criterion for the success of this approach was the availability of all relevant information about projects. Without this, ordinary people wouldn’t have been able to make use of online and offline communication tools to monitor and give feedback on budgeted projects in the areas in which they lived.

Tolu Olarewaju, Lecturer in Economics, Staffordshire University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Why Al-Shabaab targets Kenya, and what can be done to stop attacks

By

Dan Ojumah

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January 30, 2019

Brendon J. Cannon, Khalifa University and Martin Plaut, School of Advanced Study

Al-Shabaab has claimed responsibility for the terror attack in Nairobi in which scores of people were killed and injured. The question the terror attack raises is why the group continues to target Kenya. The Conversation Africa’s Moina Spooner and Julius Maina spoke to Brendon Cannon and Martin Plaut.

What is Al-Shabaab?

Brendon Cannon: Al-Shabaab is an Islamist terror group formed in Somalia in the first decade of this century. Its original leadership was affiliated with Al-Qaeda, having trained and fought in Afghanistan.

Al-Shabaab was originally dedicated to removing foreign influence from Somalia and bringing a strict form of Islamic governance to the country. At the height of its power, around 2008-2010, it controlled the capital, Mogadishu, and a sizeable territory south and west of the capital, including the ports of Merca and Kismayo.

Initially, al-Shabaab was a fairly hierarchical organisation and one, that despite ideological and tactical differences, was largely consolidated under Ahmed Abdi Godane aka Mukhtar Abu Zubair, the leader of the group when it attacked Westgate in 2013.

After his death in 2014, al-Shabaab has reportedly fragmented. This may partially explain the atomised group’s twin focus of attacks on both Somalia and Kenya. That is, Kenyan fighters trained by and loosely affiliated with al-Shabaab appear to be responsible for at least some of the attacks perpetrated in Kenya, particularly in the country’s northeast.

What’s its motive for attacking Kenya?

Brendon Cannon: The group began attacking targets outside Somalia in 2007. Its first attack on Kenyan soil was in 2008. The Kenyan government responded with force. In 2011, to “protect national security”, the country’s defence forces entered southern Somalia to create a buffer zone between al-Shabaab held territories and Kenya. In the process, the Kenyan forces captured the port of Kismayo and quickly joined troops from the African Union Mission in Somalia in battling al-Shabaab.

Al-Shabaab publicly states its attacks are in retaliation to the Kenya Defence Force’s incursion in Somalia. It also justifies them for nebulous reasons associated with international jihad.

But it’s also motivated to attack Kenya because of the benefits vis-à-vis recruitment and fundraising that are a partial byproduct of international press coverage. That is, front page news of the group’s attacks in Kenya inadvertently provides an outlet for al-Shabaab to showcase its attacks with few filters and to exploit such media stories in its own propaganda. The results of the deadly carnage often serve as prime recruiting tools in terms of foot soldiers and funding.

It also launches attacks because it can. The group has been able to exploit the absence of a strong government in Somalia and the 682 kilometre long porous border between it and Kenya for a number of years.

Since 2011 the group has lost territory in Somalia. Nevertheless, it continues to maintain the capabilities and is intent on inflicting significant damage in Somalia and Kenya. The attacks in Somalia have typically been small-scale, targeting the military and police. There have been some large incidents. For example in 2017 at least 300 people were killed when a truck packed with explosives detonated in the centre of Mogadishu.

Martin Plaut: The Kenyan invasion of Somalia in 2011 was undertaken for understandable reasons. But the decision to go ahead was taken against the advice of its international friends – including the US and its neighbour Ethiopia. The Kenyan army has attempted to establish Jubaland, partitioning the regions of Gedo, Lower Juba and Middle Juba from the rest of Somalia. It has met with little success.

This attempt to prevent al-Shabaab from establishing itself on the Kenyan border has become a mission too far, posing questions about how long it can be sustained and at what cost.

Why Kenya more than other frontline states?

Brendon Cannon: As highlighted in one of my recent articles, Kenya is attacked far more than Ethiopia or other eastern African states. This is because of highly rational reasons that are based on cost-benefit analyses and the presence of ample opportunities.

Kenya has high international visibility and its relatively free and independent media widely publicises terrorist attacks. Another factor is that Kenya has developed a lucrative tourist sector which provides soft targets.

Additional advantages are that there are a high number of Kenyan-born fighters within the group’s ranks that possess local knowledge. This has helped al-Shabaab perform attacks and maintain terror cells in Kenya. An expanding democratic space and high levels of corruption also mean that the group is able to exploit the country’s governance weaknesses when it comes to security.

All these variables help al-Shabaab plan and execute terrorist acts while fulfilling the group’s quest to survive by maintaining relevance.

What is your assessment of Kenya’s immediate response?

Brendon Cannon Reports on the latest incident are still fragmented. But, it seems that in terms of security there has been some progress since the Garissa University attack in 2015 and the attack on the Westgate Mall in 2013.

The response of Kenyan security forces, particularly the General Service Unit – a paramilitary wing in the National Police Service of Kenya – seem to have been timely and relatively effective.

The sad truth is that coordinated attacks – replete with suicide bombers, as well as heavily armed and motivated terrorists against relatively soft targets – are extremely difficult to thwart. No matter how professional and robust the security.

Martin Plaut: As Murithi Mutiga, of the International Crisis Group, has pointed out, previous attacks have seen Kenyan reprisals against its Muslim population. The authorities responded with blanket arrests of Muslims and indiscriminate crackdowns aimed at ethnic Somalis. This inflamed tensions and made matters worse. It’s vitally important that this mistake isn’t repeated. Only by uniting can Kenyans defeat the threat posed by these terrorist attacks.

What can Kenya do to address this menace?

Brendon Cannon: As terrible as this attack is, it’s worth noting that major commercial areas and tourist hubs have largely avoided attacks by al-Shabaab since 2013 –- until yesterday. This is all the more surprising because elements within al-Shabaab remain motivated and possess the capabilities to continue attacking Kenya.

I question the rationale of some politicians who advocate the Kenyan Defence Force’s withdrawal from Somalia as a way for Kenya to avoid attacks. After all, al-Shabaab attacked Kenya multiple times prior to 2011 when the KDF entered Somalia.

Moving forward, Kenya must attempt to tighten border control mechanisms, broadcast state power throughout the entire Kenyan landmass and re-energise its fight against al-Shabaab in Somalia: a fight that has slowed significantly since 2015.

This is a Herculean task and one that Kenya’s government and security professionals, given the nature and type of threat, should be commended for doing quite well since 2013.

Martin Plaut: Kenyans need to be patient and tolerant – to build links between their communities and to face the threat together. At the same time there needs to be a serious reassessment of Kenya’s role inside Somalia. There is little indication that al-Shabaab can be defeated by outside powers, even if it can be weakened.

The Somali government has failed repeatedly, most recently in preventing Mukhtar Robow, the former spokesman for al-Shabaab, from participating in elections. When the manner in which Robow was treated and was raised by the United Nation’s chief representative, Nicholas Haysom, he was declared persona non-grata, effectively expelling him from Somalia.

Brendon J. Cannon, Assistant Professor of International Security, Institute of International & Civil Security (IICS), Khalifa University and Martin Plaut, Senior Research Fellow, Horn of Africa and Southern Africa, Institute of Commonwealth Studies, School of Advanced Study

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